{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95427f45-ee69-4bdf-b184-9df920642641", "symbol": "EWK", "name": "ISHARES INC MSCI BELGIUM ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 74.816, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.15, "architecture_energy": 40.77, "architecture_maturity": 19.775, "architecture_confidence": 76.453, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.32, "rotation_up": 48.21, "upward_expansion": 78.26, "deceleration": 58.53, "rotation_down": 25.86, "downward_expansion": 4.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 26.88452, 26.840128, 26.586269, 26.229689 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 27.21, "trend_reference": 25.916682, "distance_from_trend": 0.049903, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.568201, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.322916, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.10553, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.033526, "excess_performance": -0.092099, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.049903, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039519, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.322916, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008072, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.021055, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004428, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.033526, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.438812, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 167898, "relative_activity": 0.668308, "balance": 1.438812, "dry_up": 0.596655, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026632, "annualized_volatility": 0.212598, "from_high_reference": -0.00802, "from_low_reference": 0.242794 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.916682, "fair_value_reference": 20.568201, "structural_low": 22.948753, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.00135, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.017273, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.095867, "worst_return": -0.055754, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.021068, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.036876, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.132465, "worst_return": -0.055295, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.060302, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.035345, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.095158, "worst_return": -0.003534, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.040063, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039332, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.12085, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030441, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": 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"fair_value": 20.385405, "relative_strength": -1.229583, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.112783, "energy": 30.289689, "activity_lines": [ 26.610033, 26.680544, 26.249853, 25.98609 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 26.82, "volume": 128706, "typical_volume": 271168.15, "trend": 25.731497, "fair_value": 20.443172, "relative_strength": 1.026312, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 46.533968, "energy": 29.940178, "activity_lines": [ 26.653707, 26.716585, 26.357481, 26.062304 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.94, "volume": 162874, "typical_volume": 259286.3, "trend": 25.824035, "fair_value": 20.50441, "relative_strength": 0.314793, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.662354, "energy": 27.515881, "activity_lines": [ 26.724113, 26.757225, 26.466192, 26.140272 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 27.21, "volume": 167898, "typical_volume": 251228.6, "trend": 25.916682, "fair_value": 20.568201, "relative_strength": -2.10553, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.150499, "energy": 40.770493, "activity_lines": [ 26.88452, 26.840128, 26.586269, 26.229689 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }