{ "ticker": { "uuid": "954482df-5ef8-4ef0-acba-fbfc0c9e8ced", "symbol": "NIO", "name": "NIO Inc.", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -67.046, "architecture_energy": 54.404, "architecture_maturity": 13.361, "architecture_confidence": 92.562, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.38, "rotation_up": 19.88, "upward_expansion": 9.67, "deceleration": 44.6, "rotation_down": 57.96, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.802, 4.874545, 5.211429, 5.343957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.68, "trend_reference": 5.37, "distance_from_trend": -0.128492, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.576282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.160731, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.363088, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.056452, "excess_performance": -0.211287, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.128492, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.031327, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.160731, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148168, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.313631, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.316751, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.056452, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.060348, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 701810, "relative_activity": 0.834781, "balance": 1.060348, "dry_up": 1.185784, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09336, "annualized_volatility": 0.4583, "from_high_reference": -0.403061, "from_low_reference": 0.042316 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.37, "fair_value_reference": 5.576282, "structural_low": 4.51, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.001597, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.006732, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.43649, "worst_return": -0.220423, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.023474, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.028605, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.193548, "worst_return": -0.229855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.046859, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.189022, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.143192, "worst_return": -0.361955, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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5.55729 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 4.95, "volume": 162610, "typical_volume": 804962.0, "trend": 5.415, "fair_value": 5.829103, "relative_strength": -22.430529, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -29.167845, "energy": 55.835655, "activity_lines": [ 5.018, 5.268364, 5.581476, 5.526882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.91, "volume": 574770, "typical_volume": 826531.5, "trend": 5.406333, "fair_value": 5.792885, "relative_strength": -26.191232, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.316703, "energy": 56.335363, "activity_lines": [ 4.937333, 5.159818, 5.51319, 5.494301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.93, "volume": 1195080, "typical_volume": 859505.5, "trend": 5.403333, "fair_value": 5.757949, "relative_strength": -26.260461, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.844321, "energy": 55.359987, "activity_lines": [ 4.912667, 5.080182, 5.447143, 5.46357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.7, "volume": 841940, "typical_volume": 856678.0, "trend": 5.394667, "fair_value": 5.698718, "relative_strength": -30.360151, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -43.301598, "energy": 56.695712, "activity_lines": [ 4.838, 4.976727, 5.36, 5.418194 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.94, "volume": 1248780, "typical_volume": 845950.0, "trend": 5.376, "fair_value": 5.630385, "relative_strength": -27.006145, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -33.075153, "energy": 41.387168, "activity_lines": [ 4.870667, 4.945091, 5.296381, 5.38886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.68, "volume": 701810, "typical_volume": 840711.5, "trend": 5.37, "fair_value": 5.576282, "relative_strength": -31.363088, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.04572, "energy": 54.403757, "activity_lines": [ 4.802, 4.874545, 5.211429, 5.343957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }