{ "ticker": { "uuid": "954857cc-c2c0-42ea-8975-d91d2e95b4d7", "symbol": "ALCAT", "name": "CATANA GROUP", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.523, "architecture_energy": 89.335, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 84.977, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 0.52, "rotation_up": 8.48, "upward_expansion": 21.92, "deceleration": 37.02, "rotation_down": 84.18, "downward_expansion": 99.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.8572, 1.973236, 2.111443, 2.200517 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.83, "trend_reference": 2.329406, "distance_from_trend": -0.214392, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.884504, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.528897, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.213925, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.296918, "excess_performance": -0.350229, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.214392, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083434, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.528897, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.094837, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.342139, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160145, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.296918, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.288338, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 220650, "relative_activity": 1.227869, "balance": 0.288338, "dry_up": 1.531826, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082009, "annualized_volatility": 0.315699, "from_high_reference": -0.500538, "from_low_reference": 0.067678 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.329406, "fair_value_reference": 3.884504, "structural_low": 1.714, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.022342, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.015929, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.128788, "worst_return": -0.12987, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.086077, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.087514, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.32095, "worst_return": -0.344384, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.162749, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.215846, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.02766, "worst_return": -0.262469, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"activity_lines": [ 2.072667, 2.158636, 2.236595, 2.310574 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.76, "volume": 277214, "typical_volume": 176419.45, "trend": 2.39084, "fair_value": 3.944217, "relative_strength": -36.012048, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.429244, "energy": 93.599092, "activity_lines": [ 1.949067, 2.076291, 2.185338, 2.267827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.88, "volume": 275700, "typical_volume": 176993.7, "trend": 2.362463, "fair_value": 3.915064, "relative_strength": -31.801905, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.681269, "energy": 87.192268, "activity_lines": [ 1.900133, 2.025582, 2.149414, 2.23487 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.83, "volume": 220650, "typical_volume": 179701.6, "trend": 2.329406, "fair_value": 3.884504, "relative_strength": -34.213925, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.522581, "energy": 89.334976, "activity_lines": [ 1.8572, 1.973236, 2.111443, 2.200517 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }