{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9553895d-cfc1-4e59-900d-ae5a6fbd72ca", "symbol": "IPCO", "name": "International Petroleum Corporation", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 78.055, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -31.509, "architecture_energy": 26.236, "architecture_maturity": 12.484, "architecture_confidence": 77.048, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.43, "rotation_up": 27.68, "upward_expansion": 14.87, "deceleration": 60.41, "rotation_down": 44.22, "downward_expansion": 42.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 212.41333, 213.319997, 223.88476, 226.117419 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 209.399994, "trend_reference": 221.96, "distance_from_trend": -0.056587, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 153.568077, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.363565, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.370566, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.073846, "excess_performance": 0.012352, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056587, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074173, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.363565, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.322043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053706, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.27338, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.073846, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.101079, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1082854, "relative_activity": 1.014623, "balance": 1.101079, "dry_up": 1.302845, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.081662, "annualized_volatility": 0.379363, "from_high_reference": -0.227306, "from_low_reference": 0.50431 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 221.96, "fair_value_reference": 153.568077, "structural_low": 182.5, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.074733, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.038422, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.263878, "worst_return": -0.129357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.006064, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.00044, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.525114, "worst_return": -0.120996, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.175665, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.076983, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.770944, "worst_return": -0.108185, "sufficient": true }, { 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"date": "2026-07-24", "close": 214.800003, "volume": 955166, "typical_volume": 1123627.65, "trend": 218.826667, "fair_value": 152.108975, "relative_strength": 0.567568, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -22.909987, "energy": 43.419727, "activity_lines": [ 211.306666, 216.578181, 227.867619, 226.985807 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 216.399994, "volume": 2992845, "typical_volume": 1124144.45, "trend": 220.433334, "fair_value": 152.873205, "relative_strength": -0.247266, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.109754, "energy": 27.217335, "activity_lines": [ 213.133331, 215.239998, 226.169523, 226.829247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 209.399994, "volume": 1082854, "typical_volume": 1067247.5, "trend": 221.96, "fair_value": 153.568077, "relative_strength": -5.370566, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.509381, "energy": 26.236314, "activity_lines": [ 212.41333, 213.319997, 223.88476, 226.117419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }