{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95564ecd-0ad1-4c75-b5a9-ed37f1a04460", "symbol": "F03", "name": "Food Empire Holdings Limited", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 70.453, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -48.418, "architecture_energy": 31.645, "architecture_maturity": 31.131, "architecture_confidence": 77.761, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.06, "rotation_up": 22.29, "upward_expansion": 3.49, "deceleration": 53.88, "rotation_down": 39.1, "downward_expansion": 69.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.426, 2.428364, 2.459488, 2.551578 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.47, "trend_reference": 2.659037, "distance_from_trend": -0.071092, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.612056, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.532205, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -18.799947, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.127208, "excess_performance": -0.282044, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.071092, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.00412, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.532205, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182216, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.187999, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146942, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.127208, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.187187, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3847800, "relative_activity": 0.589921, "balance": 2.187187, "dry_up": 0.847669, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079414, "annualized_volatility": 0.548439, "from_high_reference": -0.279883, "from_low_reference": 0.143519 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.659037, "fair_value_reference": 1.612056, "structural_low": 2.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.01282, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.019832, "regime_survival": 0.705882, "best_return": 0.313131, "worst_return": -0.189654, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.006595, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.505052, "worst_return": -0.391026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.001504, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.048997, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.094019, "worst_return": -0.261147, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107142, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.045685, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.052884, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.026169, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-24", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.080851, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.839357, "energy": 26.194358, "activity_lines": [ 2.476, 2.467697, 2.535176, 2.61963 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.28, "volume": 8463100, "typical_volume": 6861128.0, "trend": 2.66037, "fair_value": 1.582936, "relative_strength": -23.526636, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.440277, "energy": 42.202996, "activity_lines": [ 2.42, 2.431151, 2.499314, 2.594918 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.41, "volume": 6233000, "typical_volume": 6800758.0, "trend": 2.661037, "fair_value": 1.592417, "relative_strength": -19.919258, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.388893, "energy": 31.319406, "activity_lines": [ 2.41, 2.423, 2.480451, 2.578765 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.43, "volume": 3572000, "typical_volume": 6700248.0, "trend": 2.66037, "fair_value": 1.602191, "relative_strength": -19.486436, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.107704, "energy": 31.747854, "activity_lines": [ 2.414667, 2.421333, 2.466541, 2.563859 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.47, "volume": 3847800, "typical_volume": 6522563.0, "trend": 2.659037, "fair_value": 1.612056, "relative_strength": -18.799947, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.418004, "energy": 31.644897, "activity_lines": [ 2.426, 2.428364, 2.459488, 2.551578 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }