{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9557491c-3847-4c2a-9d39-92512bc755ca", "symbol": "SEPT", "name": "ALLIANZIM U.S. EQUITY BUFFER10 SEP ETF", "exchange": "CBOE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 49.408, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 87.952, "architecture_energy": 89.602, "architecture_maturity": 47.035, "architecture_confidence": 74.32, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.51, "rotation_up": 65.91, "upward_expansion": 95.45, "deceleration": 43.38, "rotation_down": 27.13, "downward_expansion": 19.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 37.906393, 37.723744, 37.384887, 36.877877 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 38.2199, "trend_reference": 36.298213, "distance_from_trend": 0.052942, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.086945, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.229452, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.083977, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.077527, "excess_performance": -0.048097, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.052942, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.024984, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.229452, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018695, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04084, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002599, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077527, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.092046, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7621, "relative_activity": 0.058362, "balance": 0.092046, "dry_up": 0.032916, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.008358, "annualized_volatility": 0.073857, "from_high_reference": -0.000787, "from_low_reference": 0.15719 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.298213, "fair_value_reference": 31.086945, "structural_low": 33.63, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.008387, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.000184, "regime_survival": 0.916667, "best_return": 0.021294, "worst_return": -0.033533, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.040338, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.003504, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.047289, "worst_return": -0.003659, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.079516, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.026893, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.095141, "worst_return": 0.06389, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"direction": 78.838986, "energy": 88.227875, "activity_lines": [ 37.731213, 37.590695, 37.236947, 36.748112 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.2199, "volume": 7621, "typical_volume": 130582.4, "trend": 36.298213, "fair_value": 31.086945, "relative_strength": -4.083977, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 87.951508, "energy": 89.601793, "activity_lines": [ 37.906393, 37.723744, 37.384887, 36.877877 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }