{ "ticker": { "uuid": "955bc5ad-828a-4fe8-949d-f4aeef5ccec8", "symbol": "ORIENTALTL", "name": "Oriental Trimex Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.797, "architecture_energy": 86.473, "architecture_maturity": 27.308, "architecture_confidence": 86.62, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.69, "rotation_up": 9.77, "upward_expansion": 20.96, "deceleration": 37.37, "rotation_down": 82.04, "downward_expansion": 98.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.243333, 5.485818, 5.919381, 6.079419 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 5.16, "trend_reference": 6.381, "distance_from_trend": -0.191349, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.43932, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.45335, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.885879, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.304582, "excess_performance": -0.260873, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.191349, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131994, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.45335, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.193605, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.318859, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093013, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.304582, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.318676, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 313692, "relative_activity": 0.610995, "balance": 0.318676, "dry_up": 0.643053, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.075432, "annualized_volatility": 0.48443, "from_high_reference": -0.569641, "from_low_reference": 0.172727 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.381, "fair_value_reference": 9.43932, "structural_low": 4.4, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.040791, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.653846, "median_excess_return": -0.051689, "regime_survival": 0.807692, "best_return": 0.295455, "worst_return": -0.150943, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.067288, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.072613, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.612291, "worst_return": -0.240223, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.057143, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.111516, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.404661, "worst_return": -0.273834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.010858, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.212924, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10929, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.106825, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.047252, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.113265, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.031456, "energy": 83.558977, "activity_lines": [ 5.639333, 5.916727, 6.203381, 6.346946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.31, "volume": 296757, "typical_volume": 590550.6, "trend": 6.582333, "fair_value": 9.456372, "relative_strength": -29.295835, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.01658, "energy": 88.404059, "activity_lines": [ 5.484667, 5.770364, 6.115143, 6.258108 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.13, "volume": 233001, "typical_volume": 560397.7, "trend": 6.477333, "fair_value": 9.451436, "relative_strength": -32.628875, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.895009, "energy": 90.868991, "activity_lines": [ 5.33, 5.613455, 6.014476, 6.164409 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.16, "volume": 313692, "typical_volume": 513411.55, "trend": 6.381, "fair_value": 9.43932, "relative_strength": -31.885879, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.7972, "energy": 86.473325, "activity_lines": [ 5.243333, 5.485818, 5.919381, 6.079419 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }