{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9564ae2f-4e0a-4158-b2b9-34075299d0e0", "symbol": "IRE", "name": "Iren SpA", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 48.616, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -12.032, "architecture_energy": 7.495, "architecture_maturity": 17.043, "architecture_confidence": 75.578, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 66.46, "rotation_up": 30.65, "upward_expansion": 35.45, "deceleration": 33.53, "rotation_down": 27.37, "downward_expansion": 41.45 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.551733, 2.54659, 2.539086, 2.549336 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.552, "trend_reference": 2.582951, "distance_from_trend": -0.011983, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.137723, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.193794, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.748926, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.087268, "excess_performance": -0.258159, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.011983, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004112, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.193794, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011173, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.157489, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004213, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.087268, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.261752, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6943340, "relative_activity": 1.221867, "balance": 1.261752, "dry_up": 1.105033, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.043773, "annualized_volatility": 0.212065, "from_high_reference": -0.110181, "from_low_reference": 0.134222 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.582951, "fair_value_reference": 2.137723, "structural_low": 2.25, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.026469, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.004112, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.118171, "worst_return": -0.051678, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.054454, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.045041, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.183415, "worst_return": 0.006936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.113245, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.067796, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.343133, "worst_return": -0.005927, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.324857, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.130359, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.393911, "worst_return": 0.255804, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-05-31", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.026469, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2024-07-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008991, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-07-26", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009844, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-15", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001572, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.058824, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019512, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.261148, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004669, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.051765, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": 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"activity_lines": [ 2.532163, 2.535032, 2.529782, 2.55744 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.56, "volume": 3755486, "typical_volume": 5777780.7, "trend": 2.587284, "fair_value": 2.119194, "relative_strength": -13.773876, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.278717, "energy": 13.017119, "activity_lines": [ 2.539027, 2.540289, 2.531332, 2.555718 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.584, "volume": 7011838, "typical_volume": 5714675.1, "trend": 2.588884, "fair_value": 2.125451, "relative_strength": -12.40428, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -7.752088, "energy": 8.557564, "activity_lines": [ 2.5576, 2.548405, 2.53651, 2.555506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.528, "volume": 7407028, "typical_volume": 5692063.2, "trend": 2.586751, "fair_value": 2.131671, "relative_strength": -14.453049, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.94762, "energy": 9.018205, "activity_lines": [ 2.552667, 2.544915, 2.536584, 2.551578 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.552, "volume": 6943340, "typical_volume": 5682567.25, "trend": 2.582951, "fair_value": 2.137723, "relative_strength": -15.748926, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -12.031675, "energy": 7.495184, "activity_lines": [ 2.551733, 2.54659, 2.539086, 2.549336 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }