{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9565114c-7f56-4f5c-b1ec-264349fc2dff", "symbol": "TAALA", "name": "Taaleri Oyj", "exchange": "HEL", "country": "FI", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-18", "benchmark": "^OMXH25", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 50.82, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -21.171, "architecture_energy": 19.772, "architecture_maturity": 10.528, "architecture_confidence": 70.374, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.52, "rotation_up": 31.46, "upward_expansion": 13.94, "deceleration": 47.48, "rotation_down": 42.16, "downward_expansion": 46.27 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.276667, 7.288545, 7.314333, 7.333207 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 7.26, "trend_reference": 7.308259, "distance_from_trend": -0.006603, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.325274, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008911, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.759659, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.042223, "excess_performance": -0.081352, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.006603, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010274, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008911, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010435, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.097597, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019589, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.042223, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.444127, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 56950, "relative_activity": 1.448076, "balance": 0.444127, "dry_up": 1.62536, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020555, "annualized_volatility": 0.14052, "from_high_reference": -0.064433, "from_low_reference": 0.115995 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7.308259, "fair_value_reference": 7.325274, "structural_low": 6.760135, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.008197, "positive_rate": 0.352941, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.019147, "regime_survival": 0.529412, "best_return": 0.090476, "worst_return": -0.096216, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.043866, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.018046, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.147619, "worst_return": -0.137113, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.031263, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.050543, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.056938, "worst_return": -0.196154, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "violet", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032172, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047278, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.033613, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.021828, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049401, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 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5.439615, "activity_lines": [ 7.328, 7.306182, 7.361333, 7.344515 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-28", "close": 7.25, "volume": 75613, "typical_volume": 43132.0, "trend": 7.314743, "fair_value": 7.337155, "relative_strength": -10.437998, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.53023, "energy": 5.885149, "activity_lines": [ 7.311333, 7.297091, 7.346952, 7.33979 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 7.21, "volume": 50114, "typical_volume": 41946.25, "trend": 7.301653, "fair_value": 7.331729, "relative_strength": -9.689583, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.127451, "energy": 14.560957, "activity_lines": [ 7.278, 7.283273, 7.329048, 7.333032 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 7.35, "volume": 73012, "typical_volume": 42268.65, "trend": 7.30564, "fair_value": 7.328419, "relative_strength": -8.779894, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.906332, "energy": 10.918823, "activity_lines": [ 7.294, 7.294545, 7.326048, 7.336151 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 7.26, "volume": 56950, "typical_volume": 39328.05, "trend": 7.308259, "fair_value": 7.325274, "relative_strength": -9.759659, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.170869, "energy": 19.772454, "activity_lines": [ 7.276667, 7.288545, 7.314333, 7.333207 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }