{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95651745-6702-4301-9c22-67cc3032dfc0", "symbol": "GSL", "name": "Global Ship Lease Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.518, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.631, "architecture_energy": 73.698, "architecture_maturity": 12.129, "architecture_confidence": 79.444, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.81, "rotation_up": 73.27, "upward_expansion": 90.17, "deceleration": 44.73, "rotation_down": 8.79, "downward_expansion": 16.84 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.718, 41.226727, 40.094611, 39.459118 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 42.44, "trend_reference": 38.525552, "distance_from_trend": 0.101607, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 25.03303, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.69536, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 7.710518, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.195466, "excess_performance": 0.069841, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.101607, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.065108, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.69536, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.111665, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.077105, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.101747, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.195466, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.879402, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2242289, "relative_activity": 1.485313, "balance": 0.879402, "dry_up": 1.068108, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059582, "annualized_volatility": 0.293859, "from_high_reference": -0.050347, "from_low_reference": 0.636454 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.525552, "fair_value_reference": 25.03303, "structural_low": 35.191497, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.020647, "positive_rate": 0.588235, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": 0.011296, "regime_survival": 0.676471, "best_return": 0.218061, "worst_return": -0.231779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.046762, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.002164, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.237949, "worst_return": -0.134739, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.170586, "positive_rate": 0.857143, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": 0.032708, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.420233, "worst_return": -0.217508, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.833278, "energy": 22.2259, "activity_lines": [ 38.797333, 38.61808, 38.572184, 38.203116 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 40.16, "volume": 1459200, "typical_volume": 1660072.05, "trend": 37.576617, "fair_value": 24.518697, "relative_strength": 7.785021, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.277911, "energy": 29.212434, "activity_lines": [ 39.256, 38.859803, 38.7381, 38.38572 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 43.61, "volume": 1449574, "typical_volume": 1576008.8, "trend": 37.912451, "fair_value": 24.687151, "relative_strength": 17.015035, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.265449, "energy": 65.3638, "activity_lines": [ 40.858667, 39.755091, 39.233804, 38.774971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.34, "volume": 1298775, "typical_volume": 1532385.15, "trend": 38.263257, "fair_value": 24.865125, "relative_strength": 16.950102, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.983854, "energy": 78.11317, "activity_lines": [ 42.323333, 40.721091, 39.773187, 39.189651 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.44, "volume": 2242289, "typical_volume": 1509640.3, "trend": 38.525552, "fair_value": 25.03303, "relative_strength": 7.710518, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.631386, "energy": 73.697566, "activity_lines": [ 42.718, 41.226727, 40.094611, 39.459118 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }