{ "ticker": { "uuid": "956acf04-b026-40ff-8fad-7ee3b0fcccaa", "symbol": "300650", "name": "Tecnon Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.0, "architecture_energy": 79.965, "architecture_maturity": 57.71, "architecture_confidence": 88.174, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.01, "rotation_up": 9.76, "upward_expansion": 19.19, "deceleration": 37.27, "rotation_down": 74.18, "downward_expansion": 92.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.924667, 11.801305, 13.043956, 13.983496 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 11.54, "trend_reference": 15.31255, "distance_from_trend": -0.24637, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.365318, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.136571, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.608085, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.424726, "excess_performance": -0.432126, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.24637, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.105359, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.136571, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.393927, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.316081, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133136, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.424726, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.454406, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30048686, "relative_activity": 0.850573, "balance": 0.454406, "dry_up": 1.157619, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.147752, "annualized_volatility": 0.589176, "from_high_reference": -0.497509, "from_low_reference": 0.296629 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.31255, "fair_value_reference": 13.365318, "structural_low": 8.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": 0.051948, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.266667, "median_excess_return": 0.000762, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.314694, "worst_return": -0.340909, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.178854, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.148824, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.727, "worst_return": -0.019051, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.174901, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.195831, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.265412, "worst_return": 0.103, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"activity_lines": [ 11.568667, 12.455372, 13.65878, 14.566858 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.59, "volume": 33717600, "typical_volume": 35565664.55, "trend": 15.479883, "fair_value": 13.370242, "relative_strength": -34.449037, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.254526, "energy": 83.986689, "activity_lines": [ 10.928, 11.992561, 13.290987, 14.237682 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.54, "volume": 30048686, "typical_volume": 35327600.45, "trend": 15.31255, "fair_value": 13.365318, "relative_strength": -31.608085, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.999837, "energy": 79.965394, "activity_lines": [ 10.924667, 11.801305, 13.043956, 13.983496 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }