{ "ticker": { "uuid": "956b35cf-fdd4-4d3c-ad14-509ae48772da", "symbol": "KK", "name": "K&K Superstore Southern Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 64.734, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 17.102, "architecture_energy": 7.32, "architecture_maturity": 19.967, "architecture_confidence": 63.27, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 69.81, "rotation_up": 25.39, "upward_expansion": 43.72, "deceleration": 82.36, "rotation_down": 18.82, "downward_expansion": 21.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.019333, 1.02, 1.028143, 1.018031 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.02, "trend_reference": 0.986289, "distance_from_trend": 0.03418, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.287834, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.207973, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -8.19345, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.295026, "excess_performance": 0.102701, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.03418, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054775, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.207973, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.066104, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.081935, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.082715, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.295026, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 15.547299, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 161300, "relative_activity": 0.11339, "balance": 15.547299, "dry_up": 0.203511, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074661, "annualized_volatility": 0.308508, "from_high_reference": -0.285503, "from_low_reference": 0.671003 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.986289, "fair_value_reference": 1.287834, "structural_low": 0.787629, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.023676, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.02024, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.728573, "worst_return": -0.096385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.0503, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.066571, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.357143, "worst_return": -0.318681, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.129986, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.079173, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.457144, "worst_return": -0.4357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.35882, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.285172, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.203716, "worst_return": -0.513924, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.073418, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-05", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.021505, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.073684, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045454, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", 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"Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.128771, "energy": 16.5143, "activity_lines": [ 1.024, 1.039636, 1.030076, 1.00219 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.01, "volume": 375400, "typical_volume": 1950615.0, "trend": 0.963182, "fair_value": 1.314129, "relative_strength": -8.519374, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.74186, "energy": 15.226587, "activity_lines": [ 1.018, 1.034, 1.029203, 1.005541 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.02, "volume": 592200, "typical_volume": 1497670.0, "trend": 0.969287, "fair_value": 1.307495, "relative_strength": -8.899011, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.465061, "energy": 14.963955, "activity_lines": [ 1.018, 1.030364, 1.029068, 1.009207 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.02, "volume": 226800, "typical_volume": 1449050.0, "trend": 0.974407, "fair_value": 1.301104, "relative_strength": -9.378435, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.365533, "energy": 9.811684, "activity_lines": [ 1.017333, 1.026364, 1.028857, 1.012478 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.02, "volume": 177700, "typical_volume": 1429640.0, "trend": 0.979527, "fair_value": 1.294225, "relative_strength": -8.535048, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.166578, "energy": 8.571702, "activity_lines": [ 1.018667, 1.022545, 1.028571, 1.01542 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.02, "volume": 161300, "typical_volume": 1422530.0, "trend": 0.986289, "fair_value": 1.287834, "relative_strength": -8.19345, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.101732, "energy": 7.319622, "activity_lines": [ 1.019333, 1.02, 1.028143, 1.018031 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }