{ "ticker": { "uuid": "956eb700-3883-4844-b2ce-4c789580ab81", "symbol": "EDN", "name": "Empresa Distribuidora y Comercializadora Norte SA ADR", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.814, "architecture_energy": 21.065, "architecture_maturity": 26.406, "architecture_confidence": 87.836, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.82, "rotation_up": 23.37, "upward_expansion": 3.2, "deceleration": 49.8, "rotation_down": 40.99, "downward_expansion": 71.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.37, 25.429455, 25.502143, 25.865226 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 24.3, "trend_reference": 26.476, "distance_from_trend": -0.082188, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 24.551567, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.010246, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.967032, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.134923, "excess_performance": -0.260548, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.082188, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.068162, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.010246, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003132, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.16967, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063548, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.134923, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.44569, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 292732, "relative_activity": 0.455866, "balance": 1.44569, "dry_up": 0.435745, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.127554, "annualized_volatility": 0.457606, "from_high_reference": -0.337875, "from_low_reference": 0.689847 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 26.476, "fair_value_reference": 24.551567, "structural_low": 22.205, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.022739, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.05152, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.373853, "worst_return": -0.168951, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.192537, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.116868, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.950732, "worst_return": -0.350182, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.345909, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.242024, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.844037, "worst_return": 0.051755, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.791045, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.575193, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.943731, "worst_return": -0.189427, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.034862, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.177547, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.15197, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.518701, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.049121, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.115991, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1318, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.173123, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.295785, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051336, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.031565, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.120044, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.17929, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.127782, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.66, "volume": 297235, "typical_volume": 196584.95, "trend": 10.827867, "fair_value": 6.327513, "relative_strength": 37.501712, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", 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687233.1, "trend": 26.943333, "fair_value": 24.33849, "relative_strength": -13.956576, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.511727, "energy": 30.312564, "activity_lines": [ 24.954, 25.489091, 25.620429, 26.090968 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 25.71, "volume": 316618, "typical_volume": 666313.95, "trend": 26.747, "fair_value": 24.404196, "relative_strength": -9.166049, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.634484, "energy": 27.1623, "activity_lines": [ 25.081333, 25.543091, 25.59219, 26.011398 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 26.83, "volume": 347000, "typical_volume": 659196.8, "trend": 26.648667, "fair_value": 24.48317, "relative_strength": -5.745555, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.061574, "energy": 9.997896, "activity_lines": [ 25.725333, 25.741091, 25.668905, 26.016753 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.3, "volume": 292732, "typical_volume": 642144.25, "trend": 26.476, "fair_value": 24.551567, "relative_strength": -16.967032, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.813615, "energy": 21.065336, "activity_lines": [ 25.37, 25.429455, 25.502143, 25.865226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }