{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9574ab40-cabb-435d-aa37-e78c7960b258", "symbol": "000410", "name": "Shenyang Machine Tool Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.837, "architecture_energy": 57.232, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 92.843, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.56, "rotation_up": 28.9, "upward_expansion": 10.8, "deceleration": 60.64, "rotation_down": 48.01, "downward_expansion": 81.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.772, 4.794545, 5.156619, 5.591054 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.88, "trend_reference": 6.197, "distance_from_trend": -0.212522, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.843654, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.286931, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.834403, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.356201, "excess_performance": -0.3636, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.212522, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126691, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.286931, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.188763, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.298344, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.026569, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.356201, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.255892, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 76276495, "relative_activity": 0.91844, "balance": 0.255892, "dry_up": 1.007358, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084805, "annualized_volatility": 0.380003, "from_high_reference": -0.466667, "from_low_reference": 0.12963 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.197, "fair_value_reference": 6.843654, "structural_low": 4.32, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": 0.025335, "positive_rate": 0.647059, "directional_follow_through": 0.352941, "median_excess_return": -0.022469, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.134921, "worst_return": -0.146104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.055634, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.044333, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.31738, "worst_return": -0.216174, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.143433, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.056274, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.460957, "worst_return": -0.117391, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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5.58119, 6.020301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.53, "volume": 92888230, "typical_volume": 93051580.9, "trend": 6.439333, "fair_value": 6.901859, "relative_strength": -34.001895, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.082514, "energy": 69.501079, "activity_lines": [ 4.693333, 4.910182, 5.433667, 5.891312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.6, "volume": 92903085, "typical_volume": 90298436.5, "trend": 6.352, "fair_value": 6.880833, "relative_strength": -32.594352, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.455042, "energy": 66.552707, "activity_lines": [ 4.637333, 4.811818, 5.308333, 5.772645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.93, "volume": 72576787, "typical_volume": 85148894.6, "trend": 6.272667, "fair_value": 6.8625, "relative_strength": -26.03471, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.058294, "energy": 63.730384, "activity_lines": [ 4.725333, 4.799818, 5.228714, 5.680903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.88, "volume": 76276495, "typical_volume": 83050047.7, "trend": 6.197, "fair_value": 6.843654, "relative_strength": -29.834403, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.836933, "energy": 57.231651, "activity_lines": [ 4.772, 4.794545, 5.156619, 5.591054 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }