{ "ticker": { "uuid": "957c00ff-bcfe-4f4a-a7ee-5b71bd256d6c", "symbol": "PRJU", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Prime Japan UCITS ETF DR", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -65.861, "architecture_energy": 67.762, "architecture_maturity": 93.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.213, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.87, "rotation_up": 29.83, "upward_expansion": 12.0, "deceleration": 60.98, "rotation_down": 53.74, "downward_expansion": 83.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 42.435417, 116.954296, 1311.274636, 2014.316361 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 43.830002, "trend_reference": 2796.714368, "distance_from_trend": -0.984328, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2970.683603, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.985246, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -98.735249, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.98906, "excess_performance": -1.040295, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.984328, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.275484, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.985246, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.32919, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.987352, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.059218, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.98906, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.000865, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 117443, "relative_activity": 1.018251, "balance": 3.000865, "dry_up": 0.745613, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 7.885019, "annualized_volatility": 6.390338, "from_high_reference": -0.991989, "from_low_reference": 0.078494 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2796.714368, "fair_value_reference": 2970.683603, "structural_low": 40.639999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.006032, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.014857, "regime_survival": 0.928571, "best_return": 0.11215, "worst_return": -0.084412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.081446, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.030453, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.161189, "worst_return": -0.121206, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.061778, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.084173, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.077349, "worst_return": -0.200904, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"direction": -67.280094, "energy": 68.437297, "activity_lines": [ 41.829583, 266.525682, 1536.599044, 2200.030502 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 43.830002, "volume": 117443, "typical_volume": 115338.0, "trend": 2796.714368, "fair_value": 2970.683603, "relative_strength": -98.735249, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.860959, "energy": 67.761956, "activity_lines": [ 42.435417, 116.954296, 1311.274636, 2014.316361 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }