{ "ticker": { "uuid": "957d5195-2ad8-4377-9366-b5067421713c", "symbol": "HDD", "name": "Heidelberger Druckmaschinen Aktiengesellschaft", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 95.147, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.571, "architecture_energy": 21.082, "architecture_maturity": 8.195, "architecture_confidence": 88.792, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.01, "rotation_up": 22.09, "upward_expansion": 3.86, "deceleration": 46.75, "rotation_down": 44.85, "downward_expansion": 74.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.403933, 1.408582, 1.421533, 1.429492 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.5, "trend_reference": 1.480067, "distance_from_trend": 0.013468, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.342872, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.117009, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -29.726827, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.010554, "excess_performance": -0.184801, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.013468, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107605, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.117009, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050369, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.297268, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00957, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.010554, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.0, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 5.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060821, "annualized_volatility": 0.455635, "from_high_reference": -0.372385, "from_low_reference": 0.157407 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.480067, "fair_value_reference": 1.342872, "structural_low": 1.296, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": -0.021651, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.032405, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 0.313755, "worst_return": -0.277468, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.019295, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.086653, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.429083, "worst_return": -0.249616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.010548, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.117176, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.289398, "worst_return": -0.28447, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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-25.485518, "energy": 12.489696, "activity_lines": [ 1.466133, 1.449436, 1.440462, 1.490828 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.425, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1453.6, "trend": 1.5817, "fair_value": 1.345301, "relative_strength": -35.838313, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.223007, "energy": 12.372899, "activity_lines": [ 1.452533, 1.445873, 1.439329, 1.479589 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.373, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1453.6, "trend": 1.563333, "fair_value": 1.344365, "relative_strength": -36.995875, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.027968, "energy": 26.560682, "activity_lines": [ 1.424867, 1.433418, 1.433819, 1.466125 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.333, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1453.6, "trend": 1.540933, "fair_value": 1.34341, "relative_strength": -37.137302, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.276004, "energy": 55.437324, "activity_lines": [ 1.384133, 1.415345, 1.425181, 1.451265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.356, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1453.6, "trend": 1.5188, "fair_value": 1.342699, "relative_strength": -36.423592, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.378521, "energy": 61.402449, "activity_lines": [ 1.365933, 1.403455, 1.419214, 1.439333 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.363, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1453.6, "trend": 1.496733, "fair_value": 1.342167, "relative_strength": -35.133499, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.782458, "energy": 60.172849, "activity_lines": [ 1.3606, 1.393655, 1.413971, 1.429282 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1266.1, "trend": 1.480067, "fair_value": 1.342872, "relative_strength": -29.726827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.570807, "energy": 21.082359, "activity_lines": [ 1.403933, 1.408582, 1.421533, 1.429492 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }