{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9582c2b3-efa2-4a48-86b1-ba0ebe87088f", "symbol": "CIT", "name": "UBS Solactive China Technology UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -34.017, "architecture_energy": 21.963, "architecture_maturity": 79.939, "architecture_confidence": 89.703, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.08, "rotation_up": 26.86, "upward_expansion": 16.1, "deceleration": 42.58, "rotation_down": 35.66, "downward_expansion": 63.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.456667, 6.416582, 6.503743, 6.574753 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.623, "trend_reference": 6.7205, "distance_from_trend": -0.014508, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.972865, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.108848, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.81903, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.063357, "excess_performance": -0.234249, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.014508, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.047355, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.108848, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062555, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.20819, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048763, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.063357, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.852103, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 180472, "relative_activity": 0.640127, "balance": 0.852103, "dry_up": 0.537372, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039919, "annualized_volatility": 0.209424, "from_high_reference": -0.24395, "from_low_reference": 0.088235 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.7205, "fair_value_reference": 5.972865, "structural_low": 6.086, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.012004, "positive_rate": 0.526316, "directional_follow_through": 0.473684, "median_excess_return": -0.014108, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.410769, "worst_return": -0.118324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.043608, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.015472, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.307548, "worst_return": -0.151013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013275, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.200747, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.681636, "worst_return": -0.095332, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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6.5866, 6.694753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 6.545, "volume": 372710, "typical_volume": 370968.8, "trend": 6.840633, "fair_value": 5.951942, "relative_strength": -22.059367, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.648969, "energy": 49.70279, "activity_lines": [ 6.3984, 6.4608, 6.576595, 6.674062 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.274, "volume": 137576, "typical_volume": 363254.25, "trend": 6.808333, "fair_value": 5.958263, "relative_strength": -23.722837, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.877993, "energy": 48.689346, "activity_lines": [ 6.362267, 6.411527, 6.542976, 6.637505 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.338, "volume": 166890, "typical_volume": 301998.35, "trend": 6.782667, "fair_value": 5.961231, "relative_strength": -22.330887, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.829969, "energy": 40.551189, "activity_lines": [ 6.352867, 6.385091, 6.517624, 6.607161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.407, "volume": 121070, "typical_volume": 295618.25, "trend": 6.749667, "fair_value": 5.965231, "relative_strength": -21.568802, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.262624, "energy": 33.285906, "activity_lines": [ 6.375333, 6.378982, 6.499414, 6.582925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.623, "volume": 180472, "typical_volume": 281931.4, "trend": 6.7205, "fair_value": 5.972865, "relative_strength": -20.81903, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.01746, "energy": 21.963413, "activity_lines": [ 6.456667, 6.416582, 6.503743, 6.574753 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }