{ "ticker": { "uuid": "958664e8-9341-416c-ad12-e9e0ed177eb6", "symbol": "ALAT", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi MSCI Em Latin America UCITS ETF-C EUR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 67.309, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.27, "architecture_energy": 27.515, "architecture_maturity": 10.163, "architecture_confidence": 58.179, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The prior uptrend is attempting to re-accelerate.", "body": "Positive Trend survived a recompression and Fast Activity is strengthening again. Promotion requires renewed confirmation across the completed evidence set." }, "scores": { "balance": 52.6, "rotation_up": 57.43, "upward_expansion": 66.8, "deceleration": 55.21, "rotation_down": 8.61, "downward_expansion": 7.8 }, "activity_lines": [ 21.125667, 20.9516, 20.921253, 20.947005 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 21.02, "trend_reference": 20.914934, "distance_from_trend": 0.005024, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.445526, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.278159, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.09671, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.002384, "excess_performance": -0.168507, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005024, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.046329, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.278159, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077351, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.060967, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.135015, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.002384, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.581711, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 116137, "relative_activity": 0.865625, "balance": 1.581711, "dry_up": 1.391521, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.029419, "annualized_volatility": 0.193202, "from_high_reference": -0.071144, "from_low_reference": 0.397049 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.914934, "fair_value_reference": 16.445526, "structural_low": 19.266001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.00847, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.016309, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.164934, "worst_return": -0.103616, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.049331, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.003511, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.270113, "worst_return": -0.064451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05152, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.047822, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.13185, "worst_return": -0.084765, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103616, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.067751, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.049133, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.022175, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037505, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.276406, "active": false }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.508421, "energy": 14.139942, "activity_lines": [ 20.728333, 20.614, 20.853781, 20.83782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.790001, "volume": 232902, "typical_volume": 134050.25, "trend": 20.6318, "fair_value": 16.33518, "relative_strength": -3.313633, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 17.277275, "energy": 13.30199, "activity_lines": [ 20.765667, 20.638037, 20.840072, 20.854314 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 21.275, "volume": 235767, "typical_volume": 134842.8, "trend": 20.743033, "fair_value": 16.370058, "relative_strength": -1.140254, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 35.849442, "energy": 23.785152, "activity_lines": [ 20.955, 20.766255, 20.876505, 20.895811 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.365, "volume": 161970, "typical_volume": 135242.35, "trend": 20.848467, "fair_value": 16.408244, "relative_strength": -1.614862, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.720241, "energy": 29.330846, "activity_lines": [ 21.121, 20.896291, 20.917867, 20.935938 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.02, "volume": 116137, "typical_volume": 134165.45, "trend": 20.914934, "fair_value": 16.445526, "relative_strength": -6.09671, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.269844, "energy": 27.515317, "activity_lines": [ 21.125667, 20.9516, 20.921253, 20.947005 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }