{ "ticker": { "uuid": "958693ed-5564-4a3e-af44-17ee6ea8c3e5", "symbol": "XDG7", "name": "Xtrackers MSCI Global SDG 7 Affordable and Clean Energy UCITS ETF 1C USD", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 92.563, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -28.198, "architecture_energy": 63.042, "architecture_maturity": 5.921, "architecture_confidence": 76.172, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.63, "rotation_up": 14.09, "upward_expansion": 29.22, "deceleration": 49.53, "rotation_down": 70.52, "downward_expansion": 56.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 25.065667, 25.769909, 26.707476, 26.512269 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 25.360001, "trend_reference": 25.983833, "distance_from_trend": -0.024008, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 20.384635, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.244074, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -8.378073, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.063982, "excess_performance": -0.10691, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.024008, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059045, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.244074, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.152791, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.083781, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.245626, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.063982, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.024416, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 260, "relative_activity": 0.136587, "balance": 1.024416, "dry_up": 0.31415, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.042996, "annualized_volatility": 0.21212, "from_high_reference": -0.153114, "from_low_reference": 0.414232 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 25.983833, "fair_value_reference": 20.384635, "structural_low": 23.49, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.044579, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.016989, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.044579, "worst_return": 0.044579, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.026747, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.122528, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.026747, "worst_return": -0.026747, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.126692, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.2909, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.126692, "worst_return": -0.126692, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.228398, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.040727, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.228398, "worst_return": 0.228398, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024501, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.043065, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.007595, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.084526, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.047834, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02414, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.220723, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053488, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.150365, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.066789, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045342, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 22.08, "volume": 1370, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-08-25", "close": 22.18, "volume": 1360, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2023-09-01", "close": 22.469999, "volume": 6367, 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"activity_lines": [ 25.743333, 26.609818, 27.100595, 26.647634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 24.26, "volume": 425, "typical_volume": 2023.15, "trend": 25.8935, "fair_value": 20.374571, "relative_strength": -9.646673, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.548209, "energy": 66.208171, "activity_lines": [ 25.136, 26.049545, 26.850429, 26.546688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 25.360001, "volume": 260, "typical_volume": 1903.55, "trend": 25.983833, "fair_value": 20.384635, "relative_strength": -8.378073, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -28.197813, "energy": 63.041998, "activity_lines": [ 25.065667, 25.769909, 26.707476, 26.512269 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }