{ "ticker": { "uuid": "958b3385-8019-403f-9908-0beebaa597fe", "symbol": "HPF", "name": "Harvest Energy Leaders Income ETF Class A CAD Hedged", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 56.782, "architecture_energy": 54.889, "architecture_maturity": 5.7, "architecture_confidence": 67.941, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.64, "rotation_up": 69.81, "upward_expansion": 79.03, "deceleration": 54.84, "rotation_down": 10.97, "downward_expansion": 10.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.855598, 3.755718, 3.739343, 3.714094 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.79, "trend_reference": 3.62248, "distance_from_trend": 0.046244, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.949141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.28512, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 2.285847, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.158303, "excess_performance": 0.037881, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046244, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078363, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.28512, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006039, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.022858, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052646, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.158303, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.188535, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 30800, "relative_activity": 0.400208, "balance": 2.188535, "dry_up": 0.459005, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041235, "annualized_volatility": 0.251196, "from_high_reference": -0.057556, "from_low_reference": 0.403836 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.62248, "fair_value_reference": 2.949141, "structural_low": 3.272029, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": -0.00126, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.005868, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.098659, "worst_return": -0.169017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.018134, "positive_rate": 0.545455, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.033421, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.178831, "worst_return": -0.059741, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.043956, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.02671, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.200208, "worst_return": -0.109704, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }