{ "ticker": { "uuid": "958c65d3-1edf-4289-a013-6411ccc2c382", "symbol": "261240", "name": "KODEX USD Futures", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 75.02, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -46.043, "architecture_energy": 65.714, "architecture_maturity": 4.993, "architecture_confidence": 91.782, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.09, "rotation_up": 14.02, "upward_expansion": 26.82, "deceleration": 51.14, "rotation_down": 75.7, "downward_expansion": 54.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 14871.333333, 15167.090909, 15296.785714, 15266.827957 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 14610.0, "trend_reference": 15177.833333, "distance_from_trend": -0.037412, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13691.584823, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.067079, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.106308, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.020121, "excess_performance": -0.249949, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.037412, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013171, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.067079, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056114, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221063, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.228643, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.020121, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.624096, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 332961, "relative_activity": 0.805615, "balance": 0.624096, "dry_up": 0.862411, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020797, "annualized_volatility": 0.0918, "from_high_reference": -0.082286, "from_low_reference": 0.061947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15177.833333, "fair_value_reference": 13691.584823, "structural_low": 14445.0, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.012439, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.050307, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.018633, "worst_return": -0.027741, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.02627, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.023947, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.089674, "worst_return": 0.022586, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.09326, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.090889, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.116071, "worst_return": 0.014643, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -28.301454, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.999434, "energy": 19.919623, "activity_lines": [ 15491.666667, 15556.0, 15459.761905, 15339.344086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 15105.0, "volume": 412411, "typical_volume": 457267.2, "trend": 15181.166667, "fair_value": 13657.31198, "relative_strength": -26.657864, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.538645, "energy": 15.988583, "activity_lines": [ 15336.333333, 15473.090909, 15433.738095, 15335.526882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14690.0, "volume": 496052, "typical_volume": 425362.85, "trend": 15183.666667, "fair_value": 13675.165296, "relative_strength": -26.610713, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.289779, "energy": 42.168741, "activity_lines": [ 15081.333333, 15319.636364, 15367.809524, 15303.83871 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14610.0, "volume": 332961, "typical_volume": 413300.15, "trend": 15177.833333, "fair_value": 13691.584823, "relative_strength": -22.106308, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.042876, "energy": 65.713802, "activity_lines": [ 14871.333333, 15167.090909, 15296.785714, 15266.827957 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }