{ "ticker": { "uuid": "958d6aba-be36-4ca3-9975-a092e5d88094", "symbol": "PB", "name": "Prosperity Bancshares Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 80.941, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.824, "architecture_energy": 55.417, "architecture_maturity": 12.8, "architecture_confidence": 76.933, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.31, "rotation_up": 61.96, "upward_expansion": 83.76, "deceleration": 50.24, "rotation_down": 15.55, "downward_expansion": 10.42 }, "activity_lines": [ 73.843333, 73.151179, 71.489323, 70.475515 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 73.95, "trend_reference": 69.763916, "distance_from_trend": 0.060004, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 64.815877, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.140924, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.369409, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.010195, "excess_performance": -0.11543, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.060004, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020368, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.140924, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056217, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.033694, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059546, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010195, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.162782, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5060111, "relative_activity": 0.980266, "balance": 1.162782, "dry_up": 0.959564, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040831, "annualized_volatility": 0.199172, "from_high_reference": -0.025242, "from_low_reference": 0.242886 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 69.763916, "fair_value_reference": 64.815877, "structural_low": 62.671572, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.015929, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.019843, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.130447, "worst_return": -0.167588, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.018809, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.016513, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.104683, "worst_return": -0.207841, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.010545, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.082963, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.104956, "worst_return": -0.226834, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"close": 74.87, "volume": 5992998, "typical_volume": 5295650.65, "trend": 69.673542, "fair_value": 64.691782, "relative_strength": 1.157684, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.7329, "energy": 58.101962, "activity_lines": [ 73.486667, 72.781649, 71.076373, 70.199615 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 73.95, "volume": 5060111, "typical_volume": 5161978.75, "trend": 69.763916, "fair_value": 64.815877, "relative_strength": -3.369409, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.823696, "energy": 55.41659, "activity_lines": [ 73.843333, 73.151179, 71.489323, 70.475515 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }