{ "ticker": { "uuid": "958df631-f064-4c86-b3f9-0d0b4e8abe23", "symbol": "091160", "name": "Kodex Semicon", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -36.125, "architecture_energy": 41.881, "architecture_maturity": 62.739, "architecture_confidence": 40.587, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.33, "rotation_up": 14.03, "upward_expansion": 22.19, "deceleration": 72.47, "rotation_down": 71.12, "downward_expansion": 40.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 119678.333333, 135372.909091, 141132.606138, 133481.453091 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 107750.0, "trend_reference": 120691.575261, "distance_from_trend": -0.107228, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 53429.144156, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.01669, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 6.328233, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.277526, "excess_performance": 0.047697, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.107228, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.320402, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.01669, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.270414, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.063282, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.277905, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.277526, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.258033, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9202438, "relative_activity": 0.551868, "balance": 2.258033, "dry_up": 0.61331, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.191008, "annualized_volatility": 0.533954, "from_high_reference": -0.429169, "from_low_reference": 2.019704 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 120691.575261, "fair_value_reference": 53429.144156, "structural_low": 84232.808952, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.014363, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.013716, "regime_survival": 0.538462, "best_return": 0.106254, "worst_return": -0.158233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.008403, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.012412, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.131973, "worst_return": -0.184371, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.159013, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.005448, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.308918, "worst_return": 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"Developing", "return": 0.107318, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004837, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-08-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.189475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-16", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.189935, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.098499, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.019541, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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107750.0, "volume": 9202438, "typical_volume": 16675075.9, "trend": 120691.575261, "fair_value": 53429.144156, "relative_strength": 6.328233, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.125199, "energy": 41.880654, "activity_lines": [ 119678.333333, 135372.909091, 141132.606138, 133481.453091 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }