{ "ticker": { "uuid": "958f2ada-4ee2-4af1-a004-2545a225706f", "symbol": "COTY", "name": "Coty Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Emerging rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 46.943, "architecture_energy": 67.105, "architecture_maturity": 17.857, "architecture_confidence": 55.562, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.91, "rotation_up": 75.48, "upward_expansion": 63.5, "deceleration": 21.32, "rotation_down": 16.13, "downward_expansion": 21.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.700667, 2.490727, 2.342857, 2.328645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 2.82, "trend_reference": 2.403667, "distance_from_trend": 0.173208, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.871282, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.589596, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -16.850554, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.06015, "excess_performance": -0.065475, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.173208, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.119536, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.589596, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088633, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.168506, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.237571, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.06015, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.883007, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 50413313, "relative_activity": 0.988418, "balance": 0.883007, "dry_up": 0.948536, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106383, "annualized_volatility": 0.541037, "from_high_reference": -0.444882, "from_low_reference": 0.549451 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.403667, "fair_value_reference": 6.871282, "structural_low": 1.82, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.036509, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.053253, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.060719, "worst_return": -0.061055, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.014377, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.083808, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.434944, "worst_return": -0.137835, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.213259, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.256726, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.431227, "worst_return": -0.391304, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2023-10-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.111205, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-10-13", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.201655, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028754, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-02-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.039669, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-02-16", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.10084, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.728035, "energy": 21.57964, "activity_lines": [ 2.142, 2.100545, 2.153095, 2.259075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.61, "volume": 50120916, "typical_volume": 49663309.1, "trend": 2.443, "fair_value": 7.047885, "relative_strength": -24.07554, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.945834, "energy": 12.732151, "activity_lines": [ 2.313333, 2.190909, 2.192905, 2.268452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.65, "volume": 53937022, "typical_volume": 50420683.85, "trend": 2.428, "fair_value": 6.988077, "relative_strength": -20.96543, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 30.148608, "energy": 34.183282, "activity_lines": [ 2.462, 2.286, 2.236048, 2.281806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.75, "volume": 39045433, "typical_volume": 50560584.15, "trend": 2.416, "fair_value": 6.928333, "relative_strength": -17.46944, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 34.844827, "energy": 52.067036, "activity_lines": [ 2.597333, 2.388545, 2.287381, 2.302581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.82, "volume": 50413313, "typical_volume": 51004022.2, "trend": 2.403667, "fair_value": 6.871282, "relative_strength": -16.850554, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 46.943176, "energy": 67.105171, "activity_lines": [ 2.700667, 2.490727, 2.342857, 2.328645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }