{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9592d62f-2a69-4b97-a1c8-39cbe3e06308", "symbol": "AJ", "name": "A.J. Plast Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 87.102, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 59.314, "architecture_energy": 47.892, "architecture_maturity": 24.926, "architecture_confidence": 95.835, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.44, "rotation_up": 58.47, "upward_expansion": 83.99, "deceleration": 47.97, "rotation_down": 18.66, "downward_expansion": 8.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.102667, 3.034909, 2.976476, 2.840387 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.14, "trend_reference": 2.591667, "distance_from_trend": 0.211576, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.109583, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.235932, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.906813, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.825581, "excess_performance": 0.633256, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.211576, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176426, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.235932, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.17168, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.159068, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.115979, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.825581, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.078697, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11896300, "relative_activity": 0.329958, "balance": 2.078697, "dry_up": 0.670261, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.103871, "annualized_volatility": 0.935716, "from_high_reference": -0.132597, "from_low_reference": 1.07947 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.591667, "fair_value_reference": 4.109583, "structural_low": 1.51, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.061538, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.012485, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.115942, "worst_return": -0.090909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.090909, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.01472, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.090909, "worst_return": 0.090909, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2.768559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.04, "volume": 7598500, "typical_volume": 43696690.0, "trend": 2.552667, "fair_value": 4.146186, "relative_strength": 11.328009, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.507731, "energy": 49.478283, "activity_lines": [ 3.076, 3.001455, 2.952952, 2.802495 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.14, "volume": 11896300, "typical_volume": 36053990.0, "trend": 2.591667, "fair_value": 4.109583, "relative_strength": 15.906813, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.313519, "energy": 47.892359, "activity_lines": [ 3.102667, 3.034909, 2.976476, 2.840387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }