{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9597e6da-dc30-46a7-b0ef-d34f4033b841", "symbol": "EBUF", "name": "INNOVATOR EMERGING MARKETS 10 BUFFER ETF - QUARTERLY", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 51.69, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 52.018, "architecture_energy": 25.673, "architecture_maturity": 62.93, "architecture_confidence": 75.528, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.93, "rotation_up": 30.46, "upward_expansion": 57.71, "deceleration": 88.32, "rotation_down": 27.94, "downward_expansion": 19.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.263607, 31.304218, 31.278298, 30.932103 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 31.6768, "trend_reference": 30.426903, "distance_from_trend": 0.041079, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.711291, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.143101, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -4.218961, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.083727, "excess_performance": -0.041898, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.041079, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032524, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.143101, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010875, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.04219, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0218, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.083727, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.559882, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 23663, "relative_activity": 0.34705, "balance": 0.559882, "dry_up": 0.66424, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015839, "annualized_volatility": 0.08296, "from_high_reference": -0.00793, "from_low_reference": 0.14614 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.426903, "fair_value_reference": 27.711291, "structural_low": 28.83, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.06841, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.057518, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.06841, "worst_return": 0.06841, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.094917, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.057677, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.094917, "worst_return": 0.094917, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.001894, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.050128, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.006505, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024476, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-07-05", "close": 25.19, "volume": 20016, 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47.072673, "energy": 36.961003, "activity_lines": [ 31.25168, 31.357156, 31.153318, 30.739504 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.92, "volume": 39214, "typical_volume": 66298.9, "trend": 30.261623, "fair_value": 27.642489, "relative_strength": -2.417542, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.443451, "energy": 28.216922, "activity_lines": [ 31.09454, 31.273942, 31.1722, 30.786657 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.1764, "volume": 52189, "typical_volume": 67516.85, "trend": 30.33717, "fair_value": 27.67491, "relative_strength": -2.549615, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 33.077654, "energy": 22.576541, "activity_lines": [ 31.07604, 31.242418, 31.206429, 30.845675 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 31.6768, "volume": 23663, "typical_volume": 68183.2, "trend": 30.426903, "fair_value": 27.711291, "relative_strength": -4.218961, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.018163, "energy": 25.673159, "activity_lines": [ 31.263607, 31.304218, 31.278298, 30.932103 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }