{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95a5e74e-7d5b-497a-adc9-665b883f3bb6", "symbol": "HLE", "name": "HELLA GmbH & Co. KGaA", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -47.489, "architecture_energy": 27.355, "architecture_maturity": 55.318, "architecture_confidence": 86.039, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.1, "rotation_up": 22.33, "upward_expansion": 2.56, "deceleration": 54.58, "rotation_down": 42.24, "downward_expansion": 73.56 }, "activity_lines": [ 71.286666, 71.456363, 71.494325, 72.371262 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 71.599998, "trend_reference": 74.32101, "distance_from_trend": -0.036612, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 80.805541, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.113922, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -14.786058, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.148046, "excess_performance": -0.212685, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.036612, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041981, "read": "Falling" 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67.692243, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.005618, "positive_rate": 0.684211, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.00368, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.100749, "worst_return": -0.09931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.033678, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.021605, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.227203, "worst_return": -0.103878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.023148, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.015341, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.170103, "worst_return": -0.126161, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.873412, "energy": 31.245313, "activity_lines": [ 71.693331, 71.701817, 71.779134, 73.387148 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 71.699997, "volume": 18698, "typical_volume": 54339.8, "trend": 75.445705, "fair_value": 80.749785, "relative_strength": -10.930232, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.366233, "energy": 20.243936, "activity_lines": [ 71.733331, 71.71818, 71.696546, 73.123879 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 71.300003, "volume": 19724, "typical_volume": 48663.85, "trend": 75.114018, "fair_value": 80.755642, "relative_strength": -11.979756, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.542476, "energy": 22.288369, "activity_lines": [ 71.619999, 71.650908, 71.617545, 72.856414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 70.7, "volume": 21285, "typical_volume": 41720.3, "trend": 74.705837, "fair_value": 80.768307, "relative_strength": -14.062452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.724403, "energy": 33.111999, "activity_lines": [ 71.293333, 71.465454, 71.504573, 72.571639 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 71.599998, "volume": 18271, "typical_volume": 36142.95, "trend": 74.32101, "fair_value": 80.805541, "relative_strength": -14.786058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -47.488754, "energy": 27.354889, "activity_lines": [ 71.286666, 71.456363, 71.494325, 72.371262 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }