{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95bdd732-717e-4718-8cdb-d74b50cf4b96", "symbol": "ICC", "name": "International Care Company S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 93.554, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.82, "architecture_energy": 56.718, "architecture_maturity": 28.133, "architecture_confidence": 88.476, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.24, "rotation_up": 27.09, "upward_expansion": 16.12, "deceleration": 45.87, "rotation_down": 47.82, "downward_expansion": 78.12 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.137333, 1.139636, 1.188667, 1.211591 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.15, "trend_reference": 1.234, "distance_from_trend": -0.068071, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.205192, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.045795, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.912559, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.072581, "excess_performance": -0.243472, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.068071, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010954, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.045795, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079016, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.169126, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.126616, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.072581, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.625, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 750, "relative_activity": 0.090909, "balance": 6.625, "dry_up": 0.5, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036789, "annualized_volatility": 0.325097, "from_high_reference": -0.201389, "from_low_reference": 0.210526 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.234, "fair_value_reference": 1.205192, "structural_low": 1.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.009298, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": -0.001376, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.179487, "worst_return": -0.090226, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.016, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.022159, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.148515, "worst_return": -0.074074, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.046296, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.108783, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.188119, "worst_return": -0.102362, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.112865, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.294842, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": -0.070175, "worst_return": -0.155556, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.018519, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.03252, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.092437, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028571, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.19802, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.072581, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-12", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.069565, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.076923, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046875, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131944, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-06-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.04, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-26", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.017544, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.045455, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.59, "volume": 5250, "typical_volume": 21225.0, "trend": 1.605, "fair_value": 1.747845, "relative_strength": -11.471406, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": 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48.208889, "activity_lines": [ 1.33, 1.311455, 1.287667, 1.269849 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-22", "close": 1.28, "volume": 2250, "typical_volume": 17550.0, "trend": 1.247333, "fair_value": 1.225962, "relative_strength": -3.572534, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.822147, "energy": 29.28111, "activity_lines": [ 1.311333, 1.308909, 1.287857, 1.272108 ] }, { "date": "2026-05-29", "close": 1.25, "volume": 750, "typical_volume": 15675.0, "trend": 1.247667, "fair_value": 1.224872, "relative_strength": -6.540573, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 21.717454, "energy": 17.165518, "activity_lines": [ 1.285333, 1.300727, 1.285286, 1.27228 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-05", "close": 1.25, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 15112.5, "trend": 1.249333, "fair_value": 1.224038, "relative_strength": -5.983002, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 16.327285, "energy": 17.797364, "activity_lines": [ 1.265333, 1.292182, 1.283, 1.27243 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-12", "close": 1.18, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 12375.0, "trend": 1.25, "fair_value": 1.222628, "relative_strength": -13.559519, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -32.966818, "energy": 31.405084, "activity_lines": [ 1.234667, 1.270545, 1.274143, 1.267957 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 1.2, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 11737.5, "trend": 1.251333, "fair_value": 1.221346, "relative_strength": -13.994615, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.826619, "energy": 44.095177, "activity_lines": [ 1.216667, 1.254545, 1.267714, 1.264731 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 1.14, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10875.0, "trend": 1.251333, "fair_value": 1.219872, "relative_strength": -15.466284, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.872647, "energy": 61.847892, "activity_lines": [ 1.186, 1.228364, 1.255571, 1.257548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.12, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 10312.5, "trend": 1.250333, "fair_value": 1.218526, "relative_strength": -19.034507, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.938408, "energy": 79.925245, "activity_lines": [ 1.158, 1.201818, 1.242, 1.249075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.1, "volume": 2250, "typical_volume": 10087.5, "trend": 1.248667, "fair_value": 1.217179, "relative_strength": -19.859073, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.111717, "energy": 84.164865, "activity_lines": [ 1.132, 1.175636, 1.227333, 1.239376 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.12, "volume": 9750, "typical_volume": 10012.5, "trend": 1.247667, "fair_value": 1.215705, "relative_strength": -16.962553, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.836759, "energy": 81.470132, "activity_lines": [ 1.122667, 1.159273, 1.215048, 1.231075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.15, "volume": 5250, "typical_volume": 8812.5, "trend": 1.245, "fair_value": 1.212308, "relative_strength": -14.364191, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.917455, "energy": 72.532715, "activity_lines": [ 1.127333, 1.151091, 1.206381, 1.224774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.13, "volume": 750, "typical_volume": 8362.5, "trend": 1.239333, "fair_value": 1.208462, "relative_strength": -16.195239, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.166174, "energy": 64.750409, "activity_lines": [ 1.128667, 1.142182, 1.196238, 1.217355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.15, "volume": 750, "typical_volume": 8250.0, "trend": 1.234, "fair_value": 1.205192, "relative_strength": -16.912559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.819683, "energy": 56.717912, "activity_lines": [ 1.137333, 1.139636, 1.188667, 1.211591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }