{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95c73d73-4f41-42ee-ba54-52018cebf5d9", "symbol": "FNR", "name": "Far Northern Resources Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -37.952, "architecture_energy": 26.446, "architecture_maturity": 70.891, "architecture_confidence": 80.506, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.34, "rotation_up": 30.24, "upward_expansion": 20.98, "deceleration": 46.84, "rotation_down": 26.76, "downward_expansion": 59.65 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.125333, 0.120727, 0.127976, 0.134645 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.13, "trend_reference": 0.140333, "distance_from_trend": -0.073634, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.14834, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.123636, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.357908, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.133333, "excess_performance": -0.197039, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.073634, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.034404, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.123636, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.214132, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.163579, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259166, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.133333, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.259861, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10000, "relative_activity": 0.315851, "balance": 0.259861, "dry_up": 0.473777, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097633, "annualized_volatility": 0.822727, "from_high_reference": -0.380952, "from_low_reference": 0.3 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.140333, "fair_value_reference": 0.14834, "structural_low": 0.1, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.181818, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.135262, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.208333, "worst_return": 0.172414, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.416667, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.433658, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.416667, "worst_return": 0.416667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.083333, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.096693, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.083333, "worst_return": -0.083333, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"gate": "down", "direction": -70.790226, "energy": 82.465002, "activity_lines": [ 0.114, 0.122818, 0.136952, 0.140419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.11, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 40728.95, "trend": 0.139667, "fair_value": 0.149131, "relative_strength": -26.255069, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.646952, "energy": 76.644972, "activity_lines": [ 0.112667, 0.118727, 0.133619, 0.138452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.12, "volume": 5000, "typical_volume": 33259.3, "trend": 0.139667, "fair_value": 0.148887, "relative_strength": -19.250923, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.235161, "energy": 67.03754, "activity_lines": [ 0.115333, 0.117455, 0.131476, 0.137183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.12, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 32324.3, "trend": 0.139667, "fair_value": 0.148646, "relative_strength": -18.797631, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.720923, "energy": 51.889904, "activity_lines": [ 0.116667, 0.117, 0.129571, 0.135914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.13, "volume": 40800, "typical_volume": 33590.5, "trend": 0.14, "fair_value": 0.148492, "relative_strength": -13.869531, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.412151, "energy": 33.250485, "activity_lines": [ 0.121333, 0.118909, 0.128762, 0.13529 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.13, "volume": 10000, "typical_volume": 31660.45, "trend": 0.140333, "fair_value": 0.14834, "relative_strength": -16.357908, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.951821, "energy": 26.445766, "activity_lines": [ 0.125333, 0.120727, 0.127976, 0.134645 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }