{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95d0220c-06c9-42af-9af7-b80debf53212", "symbol": "600219", "name": "Shandong Nanshan Aluminium Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -45.447, "architecture_energy": 35.344, "architecture_maturity": 76.935, "architecture_confidence": 82.985, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.97, "rotation_up": 27.8, "upward_expansion": 19.02, "deceleration": 46.96, "rotation_down": 35.29, "downward_expansion": 69.02 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.566667, 4.437273, 4.702464, 5.069286 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.84, "trend_reference": 5.526336, "distance_from_trend": -0.124194, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.739746, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.294206, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.272827, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.323166, "excess_performance": -0.279962, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.124194, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016048, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.294206, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.221533, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.012728, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.083857, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.323166, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.82696, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1024167443, "relative_activity": 1.115242, "balance": 0.82696, "dry_up": 1.293832, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.083562, "annualized_volatility": 0.469218, "from_high_reference": -0.412075, "from_low_reference": 0.394194 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.526336, "fair_value_reference": 3.739746, "structural_low": 3.89, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.032959, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.018291, "regime_survival": 0.722222, "best_return": 0.131894, "worst_return": -0.197044, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.042528, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": 0.024033, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.371719, "worst_return": -0.163889, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.039634, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.034999, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.368061, "worst_return": -0.245527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 977261941.95, "trend": 5.561387, "fair_value": 3.700057, "relative_strength": -14.269601, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.917084, "energy": 89.47532, "activity_lines": [ 4.096, 4.366283, 4.85062, 5.239346 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.46, "volume": 1595907536, "typical_volume": 951950814.9, "trend": 5.554824, "fair_value": 3.711919, "relative_strength": -5.435968, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.281611, "energy": 67.41859, "activity_lines": [ 4.192667, 4.340182, 4.76816, 5.168288 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.72, "volume": 1201634657, "typical_volume": 939265724.0, "trend": 5.539717, "fair_value": 3.725448, "relative_strength": -0.675546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.079976, "energy": 50.685402, "activity_lines": [ 4.380667, 4.372727, 4.72374, 5.114429 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.84, "volume": 1024167443, "typical_volume": 918336877.35, "trend": 5.526336, "fair_value": 3.739746, "relative_strength": -1.272827, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.447384, "energy": 35.343748, "activity_lines": [ 4.566667, 4.437273, 4.702464, 5.069286 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }