{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95d38ee0-b1e3-44da-a7ae-895fb4ade9cb", "symbol": "VARO", "name": "Varopakorn Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.992, "architecture_energy": 47.369, "architecture_maturity": 82.289, "architecture_confidence": 91.413, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.7, "rotation_up": 20.26, "upward_expansion": 6.34, "deceleration": 49.41, "rotation_down": 57.41, "downward_expansion": 79.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.926667, 3.952, 3.986952, 4.048172 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 3.92, "trend_reference": 4.143333, "distance_from_trend": -0.053902, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.332821, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.095278, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -23.605811, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.100917, "excess_performance": -0.293242, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053902, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.04853, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.095278, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008158, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.236058, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.043608, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.100917, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.835613, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85600, "relative_activity": 1.505849, "balance": 0.835613, "dry_up": 2.252617, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.026688, "annualized_volatility": 0.150927, "from_high_reference": -0.223762, "from_low_reference": 0.026178 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.143333, "fair_value_reference": 4.332821, "structural_low": 3.82, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": -0.012821, "positive_rate": 0.344828, "directional_follow_through": 0.586207, "median_excess_return": -0.028072, "regime_survival": 0.862069, "best_return": 0.280488, "worst_return": -0.253125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.068554, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": -0.100623, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 2.333333, "worst_return": -0.268116, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.131566, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.107221, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.105263, "worst_return": -0.339869, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-09", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.08046, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-09-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.530055, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-09-13", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.093578, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.19604, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0131, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054852, "active": 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3.978667, 3.988364, 4.020095, 4.084688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.86, "volume": 94400, "typical_volume": 56000.0, "trend": 4.160667, "fair_value": 4.333205, "relative_strength": -26.077699, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -76.42452, "energy": 52.567959, "activity_lines": [ 3.938667, 3.962909, 3.999619, 4.063699 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.92, "volume": 85600, "typical_volume": 56845.0, "trend": 4.143333, "fair_value": 4.332821, "relative_strength": -23.605811, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.991981, "energy": 47.368654, "activity_lines": [ 3.926667, 3.952, 3.986952, 4.048172 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }