{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95d68885-bc15-4e79-91d2-210e91993553", "symbol": "UMB", "name": "UMBRELLA GLOBAL ENERGY, S.A.", "exchange": "MCE", "country": "ES", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^IBEX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -98.002, "architecture_energy": 85.223, "architecture_maturity": 57.927, "architecture_confidence": 78.079, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.83, "rotation_up": 19.66, "upward_expansion": 15.08, "deceleration": 44.34, "rotation_down": 77.01, "downward_expansion": 90.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.154667, 3.168, 3.188476, 3.211226 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 3.12, "trend_reference": 3.246667, "distance_from_trend": -0.039014, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.030943, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.225988, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.752906, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.071429, "excess_performance": -0.195859, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.039014, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.037549, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.225988, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006812, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.227529, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015629, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.071429, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2000, "relative_activity": 5.717553, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 2.39494, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.003945, "annualized_volatility": 0.054826, "from_high_reference": -0.246377, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.246667, "fair_value_reference": 4.030943, "structural_low": 3.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.006174, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.02356, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.0, "worst_return": -0.02381, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.036376, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.098783, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.035714, "worst_return": -0.037037, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.071429, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.195859, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.071429, "worst_return": -0.071429, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.071429, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-08-02", "close": 6.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-09", "close": 6.5, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-08-16", 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"volume": 1351, "typical_volume": 265.0, "trend": 3.254667, "fair_value": 4.039619, "relative_strength": -21.030502, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -91.641578, "energy": 76.546567, "activity_lines": [ 3.173333, 3.18, 3.197619, 3.219914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.12, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 349.8, "trend": 3.246667, "fair_value": 4.030943, "relative_strength": -22.752906, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -98.001619, "energy": 85.222954, "activity_lines": [ 3.154667, 3.168, 3.188476, 3.211226 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }