{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95d7ab8a-4e43-4e0f-b7b4-35402a655238", "symbol": "BRE", "name": "Bridgemarq Real Estate Services Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -89.435, "architecture_energy": 96.299, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 78.694, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.62, "rotation_up": 8.0, "upward_expansion": 22.0, "deceleration": 37.0, "rotation_down": 84.13, "downward_expansion": 95.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.499333, 8.199729, 10.427831, 11.369713 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.21, "trend_reference": 12.363902, "distance_from_trend": -0.659493, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 11.948154, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.647644, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -70.671755, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.695538, "excess_performance": -0.81596, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.659493, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063354, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.647644, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.776191, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.706718, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.600113, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.695538, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.023575, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 449300, "relative_activity": 2.699715, "balance": 0.023575, "dry_up": 4.060988, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.27048, "annualized_volatility": 1.083097, "from_high_reference": -0.705484, "from_low_reference": 0.042079 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.363902, "fair_value_reference": 11.948154, "structural_low": 4.04, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.032912, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.013825, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.086064, "worst_return": -0.060163, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.148187, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.060427, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.176207, "worst_return": -0.083393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.11724, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.025077, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.180105, "worst_return": -0.025648, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.009847, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05205, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.086799, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.000728, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.012435, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010925, "active": false 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-20.579359, "energy": 14.724604, "activity_lines": [ 13.216338, 13.231343, 13.350577, 13.397093 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.38, "volume": 17700, "typical_volume": 41755.0, "trend": 13.381451, "fair_value": 12.119828, "relative_strength": -10.237132, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -8.767844, "energy": 7.491592, "activity_lines": [ 13.2867, 13.246548, 13.344015, 13.398758 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.3, "volume": 593800, "typical_volume": 67965.0, "trend": 13.16288, "fair_value": 12.084562, "relative_strength": -57.028076, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -93.939041, "energy": 93.123655, "activity_lines": [ 10.970381, 11.981659, 12.664653, 12.941891 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.18, "volume": 1347800, "typical_volume": 132125.0, "trend": 12.9203, "fair_value": 12.041997, "relative_strength": -64.183977, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -96.875734, "energy": 98.664155, "activity_lines": [ 8.743234, 10.644572, 11.915511, 12.426866 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.98, "volume": 312500, "typical_volume": 146090.0, "trend": 12.655574, "fair_value": 11.997665, "relative_strength": -64.819442, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -94.454779, "energy": 98.036546, "activity_lines": [ 6.978, 9.417381, 11.187681, 11.914589 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.21, "volume": 449300, "typical_volume": 166425.0, "trend": 12.363902, "fair_value": 11.948154, "relative_strength": -70.671755, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -89.435321, "energy": 96.299472, "activity_lines": [ 5.499333, 8.199729, 10.427831, 11.369713 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }