{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95d7e209-64d2-432c-8b94-800d75818805", "symbol": "ACGLO", "name": "Arch Capital Group Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 75.527, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.402, "architecture_energy": 25.044, "architecture_maturity": 76.463, "architecture_confidence": 80.117, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.19, "rotation_up": 41.92, "upward_expansion": 22.69, "deceleration": 41.28, "rotation_down": 23.73, "downward_expansion": 56.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.428633, 19.295665, 19.376678, 19.495032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 19.3399, "trend_reference": 19.700124, "distance_from_trend": -0.018285, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 19.65027, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.015795, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.359079, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.040981, "excess_performance": -0.228434, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.018285, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011663, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.015795, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033467, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.153591, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.011888, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.040981, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.800533, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 123384, "relative_activity": 0.852578, "balance": 0.800533, "dry_up": 1.237065, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018585, "annualized_volatility": 0.096888, "from_high_reference": -0.077712, "from_low_reference": 0.033666 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 19.700124, "fair_value_reference": 19.65027, "structural_low": 18.71, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.016613, "positive_rate": 0.64, "directional_follow_through": 0.36, "median_excess_return": 0.00852, "regime_survival": 0.72, "best_return": 0.092929, "worst_return": -0.070115, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.006325, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.020899, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.10067, "worst_return": -0.065143, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.00038, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052921, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.145043, "worst_return": -0.103117, "sufficient": true }, { 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"direction": -68.814705, "energy": 70.088186, "activity_lines": [ 18.989548, 19.11506, 19.384601, 19.557301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 19.6, "volume": 247551, "typical_volume": 135925.8, "trend": 19.734708, "fair_value": 19.636277, "relative_strength": -11.870466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.324486, "energy": 36.665254, "activity_lines": [ 19.187667, 19.172446, 19.390227, 19.548525 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.5, "volume": 188702, "typical_volume": 142138.3, "trend": 19.733111, "fair_value": 19.640884, "relative_strength": -10.590399, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.060245, "energy": 23.01175, "activity_lines": [ 19.312, 19.218482, 19.388657, 19.533383 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.52, "volume": 156469, "typical_volume": 143837.85, "trend": 19.72123, "fair_value": 19.646291, "relative_strength": -10.615568, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.251473, "energy": 23.808163, "activity_lines": [ 19.420333, 19.274305, 19.390463, 19.519633 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.3399, "volume": 123384, "typical_volume": 144718.75, "trend": 19.700124, "fair_value": 19.65027, "relative_strength": -15.359079, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.401939, "energy": 25.044184, "activity_lines": [ 19.428633, 19.295665, 19.376678, 19.495032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }