{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95deb2b0-3451-4555-bc55-e4ddf48c0f4e", "symbol": "VFH", "name": "Vanguard Financials Index Fund ETF Shares", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 77.504, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.898, "architecture_energy": 95.391, "architecture_maturity": 10.556, "architecture_confidence": 72.182, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 12.68, "rotation_up": 88.83, "upward_expansion": 100.0, "deceleration": 39.0, "rotation_down": 8.01, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 2404.903288, 2361.684695, 2294.516275, 2263.163293 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 2424.75, "trend_reference": 2241.092505, "distance_from_trend": 0.08195, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2076.537111, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.167689, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.886761, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.085351, "excess_performance": 0.140017, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08195, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005439, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.167689, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057634, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.028868, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168898, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.085351, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.771429, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 72, "relative_activity": 2.077922, "balance": 5.771429, "dry_up": 2.799423, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010688, "annualized_volatility": 0.143236, "from_high_reference": -0.00678, "from_low_reference": 0.133326 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2241.092505, "fair_value_reference": 2076.537111, "structural_low": 2139.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 27, "median_return": 0.025641, "positive_rate": 0.740741, "directional_follow_through": 0.740741, "median_excess_return": 0.021811, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.098901, "worst_return": -0.058924, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": 0.07922, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.007541, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.202951, "worst_return": -0.099663, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.034965, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.023777, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.304546, "worst_return": -0.160037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 31.05, "trend": 2238.757389, "fair_value": 2070.222935, "relative_strength": 1.499197, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.68037, "energy": 91.483457, "activity_lines": [ 2392.647949, 2337.4432, 2276.593872, 2251.16377 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2424.75, "volume": 72, "typical_volume": 34.65, "trend": 2241.092505, "fair_value": 2076.537111, "relative_strength": 2.886761, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.898392, "energy": 95.390958, "activity_lines": [ 2404.903288, 2361.684695, 2294.516275, 2263.163293 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }