{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95ec0423-02a6-4ee0-a560-c822ff1bf36c", "symbol": "NP5", "name": "Newron Pharmaceuticals S.p.A.", "exchange": "GER", "country": "DE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GDAXI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.167, "architecture_energy": 60.846, "architecture_maturity": 73.73, "architecture_confidence": 92.154, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.99, "rotation_up": 29.15, "upward_expansion": 11.28, "deceleration": 53.68, "rotation_down": 52.59, "downward_expansion": 84.61 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.953333, 13.043636, 13.82319, 14.877763 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.2, "trend_reference": 16.756333, "distance_from_trend": -0.212238, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.861987, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.215247, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -26.350058, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.368421, "excess_performance": -0.433061, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.212238, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.146015, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.215247, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24095, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.263501, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235055, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.368421, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.132455, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 29476, "relative_activity": 1.334287, "balance": 1.132455, "dry_up": 0.764411, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070513, "annualized_volatility": 0.387636, "from_high_reference": -0.619048, "from_low_reference": 0.778976 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.756333, "fair_value_reference": 10.861987, "structural_low": 12.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.009497, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.004144, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 1.179775, "worst_return": -0.21855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.003436, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.046977, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 2.382239, "worst_return": -0.243632, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.913357, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.875602, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 2.567568, "worst_return": -0.338499, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.077626, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.11499, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.030999, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.104412, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.090253, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", 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"trend": 19.172, "fair_value": 10.582179, "relative_strength": -16.64581, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.044243, "energy": 84.518308, "activity_lines": [ 13.47, 14.152727, 15.354048, 16.971118 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 13.3, "volume": 2870, "typical_volume": 23860.0, "trend": 18.968, "fair_value": 10.628333, "relative_strength": -22.14774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.420657, "energy": 82.648993, "activity_lines": [ 13.34, 13.885455, 15.036714, 16.59228 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 13.05, "volume": 15946, "typical_volume": 23261.3, "trend": 18.681333, "fair_value": 10.675128, "relative_strength": -21.908561, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.728006, "energy": 73.436893, "activity_lines": [ 13.25, 13.644545, 14.734619, 16.210473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.7, "volume": 8919, "typical_volume": 22673.3, "trend": 18.274667, "fair_value": 10.722244, "relative_strength": -23.732589, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.651484, "energy": 68.638383, "activity_lines": [ 13.063333, 13.390909, 14.436333, 15.824581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.75, "volume": 15382, "typical_volume": 22494.2, "trend": 17.849667, "fair_value": 10.769038, "relative_strength": -24.663182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.934115, "energy": 65.020576, "activity_lines": [ 12.923333, 13.184545, 14.180905, 15.468151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.9, "volume": 13770, "typical_volume": 22015.9, "trend": 17.401333, "fair_value": 10.816474, "relative_strength": -25.749865, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.039554, "energy": 63.724623, "activity_lines": [ 12.866667, 13.064545, 13.973429, 15.148817 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.2, "volume": 29476, "typical_volume": 22091.2, "trend": 16.756333, "fair_value": 10.861987, "relative_strength": -26.350058, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.167215, "energy": 60.84636, "activity_lines": [ 12.953333, 13.043636, 13.82319, 14.877763 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }