{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95f3766b-8ec6-44a3-9a1b-33db33982b7b", "symbol": "688188", "name": "Shanghai BOCHU Electronic Technology Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 64.209, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -18.746, "architecture_energy": 19.827, "architecture_maturity": 10.167, "architecture_confidence": 54.968, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.18, "rotation_up": 22.9, "upward_expansion": 10.95, "deceleration": 50.78, "rotation_down": 46.48, "downward_expansion": 43.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 101.496666, 102.757645, 105.206424, 104.7702 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 105.25, "trend_reference": 105.030804, "distance_from_trend": 0.002087, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 94.513403, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.113599, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 3.79059, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.007907, "excess_performance": 0.035297, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.002087, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033768, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.113599, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.063093, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.037906, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044531, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.007907, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.98734, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14003895, "relative_activity": 0.713132, "balance": 0.98734, "dry_up": 0.9285, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 6 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112084, "annualized_volatility": 0.461835, "from_high_reference": -0.164629, "from_low_reference": 0.189266 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 105.030804, "fair_value_reference": 94.513403, "structural_low": 88.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.024106, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.008342, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.209671, "worst_return": -0.096025, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.024897, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.010386, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.200446, "worst_return": -0.100456, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.124521, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.056705, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.314966, "worst_return": -0.069127, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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25.704929, "activity_lines": [ 98.363943, 103.281733, 104.998603, 104.713459 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 104.709999, "volume": 17014829, "typical_volume": 19481031.25, "trend": 104.696914, "fair_value": 94.306044, "relative_strength": 6.226066, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.742758, "energy": 21.311233, "activity_lines": [ 99.988, 102.819111, 105.077254, 104.734518 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 105.25, "volume": 14003895, "typical_volume": 19637160.35, "trend": 105.030804, "fair_value": 94.513403, "relative_strength": 3.79059, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -18.74629, "energy": 19.826925, "activity_lines": [ 101.496666, 102.757645, 105.206424, 104.7702 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }