{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95f45d06-ac07-46fe-ab3b-b27d76b3056f", "symbol": "JGRO", "name": "JPMorgan ETFs (Ireland) ICAV - US Growth Active UCITS ETF USD Accumulation", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 24.462, "architecture_energy": 23.976, "architecture_maturity": 64.698, "architecture_confidence": 78.864, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.95, "rotation_up": 28.1, "upward_expansion": 52.98, "deceleration": 79.49, "rotation_down": 36.79, "downward_expansion": 26.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.649999, 32.967545, 33.001452, 32.452311 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 33.299999, "trend_reference": 31.828666, "distance_from_trend": 0.046227, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.70504, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.121022, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.28475, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.101919, "excess_performance": -0.068972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.046227, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013824, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.121022, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.001235, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102848, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040729, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.101919, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.08633, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8649, "relative_activity": 2.843476, "balance": 6.08633, "dry_up": 1.370204, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030134, "annualized_volatility": 0.171056, "from_high_reference": -0.025176, "from_low_reference": 0.159875 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 31.828666, "fair_value_reference": 29.70504, "structural_low": 28.709999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.01924, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.045746, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": -0.016915, "worst_return": -0.030463, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.075504, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.16437, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.075504, "worst_return": -0.075504, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.043826, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.110244, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.043826, "worst_return": 0.043826, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027652, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.070583, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010081, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.046985, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032552, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-06-05", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.039407, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01944, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-03-15", "close": 25.275, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": null, "direction": null, "energy": null, "activity_lines": [ null, null, null, null ] }, { "date": "2024-03-22", "close": 26.08, "volume": 1252, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, "relative_strength": null, "stage": null, "regime": null, "modifier": null, "gate": 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31.6235, "fair_value": 29.543875, "relative_strength": -7.846106, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.708064, "energy": 59.060306, "activity_lines": [ 33.593999, 33.500726, 32.485499, 31.988161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 33.66, "volume": 5119, "typical_volume": 2921.4, "trend": 31.663166, "fair_value": 29.577892, "relative_strength": -9.220727, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.873027, "energy": 57.020066, "activity_lines": [ 33.594332, 33.579454, 32.678071, 32.119548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 33.895, "volume": 3510, "typical_volume": 2913.3, "trend": 31.734, "fair_value": 29.613279, "relative_strength": -8.000243, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.277449, "energy": 57.830935, "activity_lines": [ 33.691666, 33.669818, 32.874452, 32.263537 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 32.419998, "volume": 2100, "typical_volume": 2679.9, "trend": 31.769666, "fair_value": 29.636097, "relative_strength": -10.478355, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 45.615589, "energy": 34.638709, "activity_lines": [ 33.287666, 33.45509, 32.91369, 32.307795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 32.665001, "volume": 4647, "typical_volume": 2725.9, "trend": 31.793, "fair_value": 29.660524, "relative_strength": -9.396878, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.627913, "energy": 25.231871, "activity_lines": [ 33.018, 33.29309, 32.965023, 32.365559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.629999, "volume": 1275, "typical_volume": 2719.45, "trend": 31.792333, "fair_value": 29.67628, "relative_strength": -12.538525, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.571909, "energy": 18.670381, "activity_lines": [ 32.501333, 32.959636, 32.907166, 32.355043 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.299999, "volume": 8649, "typical_volume": 3041.7, "trend": 31.828666, "fair_value": 29.70504, "relative_strength": -10.28475, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 24.462212, "energy": 23.976337, "activity_lines": [ 32.649999, 32.967545, 33.001452, 32.452311 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }