{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95f61744-4700-435a-8bca-28c411a1de75", "symbol": "FG", "name": "Fasadgruppen Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -27.41, "architecture_energy": 16.805, "architecture_maturity": 33.141, "architecture_confidence": 55.864, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.21, "rotation_up": 32.8, "upward_expansion": 23.22, "deceleration": 43.87, "rotation_down": 25.71, "downward_expansion": 50.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.445333, 20.077636, 20.275476, 20.510769 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 20.299999, "trend_reference": 21.450906, "distance_from_trend": -0.053653, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 40.129822, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.494142, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -30.204656, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.125, "excess_performance": -0.186494, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.053653, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.107226, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.494142, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031562, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.302047, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004888, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.125, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.23598, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 199938, "relative_activity": 0.495456, "balance": 2.23598, "dry_up": 0.606642, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084199, "annualized_volatility": 0.344597, "from_high_reference": -0.482143, "from_low_reference": 0.127778 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.450906, "fair_value_reference": 40.129822, "structural_low": 18.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.141665, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.164591, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.152505, "worst_return": -0.500623, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.318235, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.354599, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.111111, "worst_return": -0.588261, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.289223, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.277008, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": -0.006171, "worst_return": -0.375658, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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19.496, 20.07891, 20.352579, 21.232287 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.98, "volume": 140570, "typical_volume": 438694.3, "trend": 22.814239, "fair_value": 41.609335, "relative_strength": -34.894425, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.939108, "energy": 59.998365, "activity_lines": [ 19.227334, 19.821091, 20.203783, 20.969282 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.200001, "volume": 257662, "typical_volume": 436612.55, "trend": 22.442573, "fair_value": 41.22827, "relative_strength": -29.202834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.810977, "energy": 45.382543, "activity_lines": [ 19.463334, 19.806364, 20.187701, 20.800622 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 20.4, "volume": 225759, "typical_volume": 428023.6, "trend": 22.112573, "fair_value": 40.842261, "relative_strength": -28.881355, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.021302, "energy": 29.620423, "activity_lines": [ 19.782667, 19.851637, 20.201619, 20.668843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 21.15, "volume": 295867, "typical_volume": 416347.6, "trend": 21.787573, "fair_value": 40.481606, "relative_strength": -26.58896, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.430415, "energy": 12.026684, "activity_lines": [ 20.348667, 20.043273, 20.283048, 20.606741 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.299999, "volume": 199938, "typical_volume": 403543.45, "trend": 21.450906, "fair_value": 40.129822, "relative_strength": -30.204656, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.410466, "energy": 16.804588, "activity_lines": [ 20.445333, 20.077636, 20.275476, 20.510769 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }