{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95f647aa-dc2e-4ce3-8831-6aa35fbdc7ac", "symbol": "GMX", "name": "Globex Mining Enterprises Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.328, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -44.753, "architecture_energy": 34.515, "architecture_maturity": 53.326, "architecture_confidence": 64.285, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.9, "rotation_up": 24.64, "upward_expansion": 11.67, "deceleration": 66.13, "rotation_down": 38.96, "downward_expansion": 68.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.898667, 1.895818, 1.980571, 2.090043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.91, "trend_reference": 2.235333, "distance_from_trend": -0.145541, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.368718, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.395466, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.945183, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.213992, "excess_performance": -0.334413, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.145541, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.022412, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.395466, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.414005, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139452, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.266681, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.213992, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.468321, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 79500, "relative_activity": 0.756458, "balance": 0.468321, "dry_up": 1.210809, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.097865, "annualized_volatility": 0.553334, "from_high_reference": -0.341379, "from_low_reference": 0.515873 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.235333, "fair_value_reference": 1.368718, "structural_low": 1.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.03125, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.036595, "regime_survival": 0.727273, "best_return": 0.244186, "worst_return": -0.123288, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.112245, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.126282, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.428571, "worst_return": -0.315217, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.228926, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.206365, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.697674, "worst_return": -0.077778, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.050725, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082759, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.065934, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.035503, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.022727, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", 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1.334103, "relative_strength": -6.878381, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.289063, "energy": 77.288372, "activity_lines": [ 1.912667, 1.972, 2.11819, 2.200559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.87, "volume": 121700, "typical_volume": 145280.0, "trend": 2.222667, "fair_value": 1.340705, "relative_strength": -12.751525, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.017626, "energy": 67.183709, "activity_lines": [ 1.9, 1.940727, 2.082952, 2.178065 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.76, "volume": 119400, "typical_volume": 138305.0, "trend": 2.222667, "fair_value": 1.346667, "relative_strength": -17.809516, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.620444, "energy": 64.945837, "activity_lines": [ 1.854667, 1.896, 2.040429, 2.148215 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.98, "volume": 128400, "typical_volume": 131155.0, "trend": 2.231333, "fair_value": 1.354038, "relative_strength": -7.958274, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.47229, "energy": 45.4817, "activity_lines": [ 1.89, 1.901091, 2.022286, 2.132559 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.9, "volume": 181700, "typical_volume": 118970.0, "trend": 2.237667, "fair_value": 1.36141, "relative_strength": -11.450602, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.889331, "energy": 41.882091, "activity_lines": [ 1.895333, 1.896182, 1.999, 2.111183 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.91, "volume": 79500, "typical_volume": 105095.0, "trend": 2.235333, "fair_value": 1.368718, "relative_strength": -13.945183, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -44.753118, "energy": 34.51461, "activity_lines": [ 1.898667, 1.895818, 1.980571, 2.090043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }