{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95f78a29-1dea-4748-b407-99c72c535a08", "symbol": "AF", "name": "Air France-KLM SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.391, "architecture_energy": 24.617, "architecture_maturity": 65.403, "architecture_confidence": 88.229, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 38.63, "rotation_up": 27.29, "upward_expansion": 63.92, "deceleration": 88.1, "rotation_down": 28.5, "downward_expansion": 16.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.284333, 12.544273, 11.910776, 11.459991 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 12.51, "trend_reference": 11.113367, "distance_from_trend": 0.125671, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.358295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.207728, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.663208, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.037744, "excess_performance": -0.015568, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.125671, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.051413, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.207728, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.255186, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026632, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.099298, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.037744, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.425379, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5619036, "relative_activity": 0.690577, "balance": 1.425379, "dry_up": 0.665957, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082236, "annualized_volatility": 0.55136, "from_high_reference": -0.175074, "from_low_reference": 0.494981 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.113367, "fair_value_reference": 10.358295, "structural_low": 8.368, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.009048, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.03032, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.160494, "worst_return": -0.090707, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.062363, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.091425, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.469974, "worst_return": -0.030848, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.18008, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.171836, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.468016, "worst_return": -0.218427, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.293591, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.063172, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.171722, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.087042, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.235319, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.172536, "active": false 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"up", "direction": 65.909802, "energy": 75.031375, "activity_lines": [ 13.064667, 12.620073, 11.565114, 11.259234 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.735, "volume": 5699099, "typical_volume": 8744019.95, "trend": 11.0812, "fair_value": 10.389385, "relative_strength": -0.240881, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.698779, "energy": 44.524163, "activity_lines": [ 12.605, 12.558545, 11.653681, 11.302329 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.09, "volume": 5647552, "typical_volume": 8398173.15, "trend": 11.075033, "fair_value": 10.370571, "relative_strength": 1.191189, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.871762, "energy": 29.163225, "activity_lines": [ 12.311667, 12.529909, 11.768224, 11.367413 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 12.51, "volume": 5619036, "typical_volume": 8136723.9, "trend": 11.113367, "fair_value": 10.358295, "relative_strength": 2.663208, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.39065, "energy": 24.616811, "activity_lines": [ 12.284333, 12.544273, 11.910776, 11.459991 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }