{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95f90542-c130-4a51-9b46-aaaca11ba7bb", "symbol": "601068", "name": "China Aluminum International Engineering Corporation Limited", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.654, "architecture_energy": 58.887, "architecture_maturity": 66.186, "architecture_confidence": 95.203, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.18, "rotation_up": 27.46, "upward_expansion": 11.08, "deceleration": 60.7, "rotation_down": 53.0, "downward_expansion": 84.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.434667, 4.460182, 4.892286, 5.184796 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 4.56, "trend_reference": 5.505333, "distance_from_trend": -0.171712, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.843718, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.058574, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.098326, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.248764, "excess_performance": -0.205561, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.171712, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.042939, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.058574, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.315116, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.140983, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.212466, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.248764, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.486189, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 48200276, "relative_activity": 0.682634, "balance": 0.486189, "dry_up": 0.955385, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080972, "annualized_volatility": 0.402309, "from_high_reference": -0.35865, "from_low_reference": 0.106796 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.505333, "fair_value_reference": 4.843718, "structural_low": 4.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.017199, "positive_rate": 0.411765, "directional_follow_through": 0.588235, "median_excess_return": -0.004553, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.205063, "worst_return": -0.090526, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.037082, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.018446, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.232911, "worst_return": -0.082164, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.069474, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.012986, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.085511, "worst_return": -0.038076, "sufficient": false }, { 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"Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.195098, "energy": 92.679942, "activity_lines": [ 4.461333, 4.807455, 5.298238, 5.491054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.21, "volume": 70165139, "typical_volume": 84303661.5, "trend": 5.603333, "fair_value": 4.863782, "relative_strength": -17.753146, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.764348, "energy": 91.36954, "activity_lines": [ 4.334667, 4.642182, 5.163857, 5.399677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.26, "volume": 87496507, "typical_volume": 79607459.45, "trend": 5.577667, "fair_value": 4.854744, "relative_strength": -17.560702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.564306, "energy": 87.535416, "activity_lines": [ 4.281333, 4.522, 5.044714, 5.313011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.56, "volume": 63974094, "typical_volume": 74343090.5, "trend": 5.529667, "fair_value": 4.848718, "relative_strength": -11.933168, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.883374, "energy": 68.326928, "activity_lines": [ 4.362, 4.481273, 4.964095, 5.247355 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.56, "volume": 48200276, "typical_volume": 70609253.55, "trend": 5.505333, "fair_value": 4.843718, "relative_strength": -14.098326, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.653535, "energy": 58.88659, "activity_lines": [ 4.434667, 4.460182, 4.892286, 5.184796 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }