{ "ticker": { "uuid": "95fcc0c3-f3e3-4197-a35c-cd5d7d6abc9d", "symbol": "BAM", "name": "Bangkok Commercial Asset Management Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 69.561, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 17.228, "architecture_energy": 24.143, "architecture_maturity": 10.611, "architecture_confidence": 44.062, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.95, "rotation_up": 54.41, "upward_expansion": 44.09, "deceleration": 26.82, "rotation_down": 18.04, "downward_expansion": 16.76 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.853333, 6.805455, 6.720267, 6.721511 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 6.85, "trend_reference": 6.798108, "distance_from_trend": 0.007633, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.948042, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.014111, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.683937, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.045925, "excess_performance": -0.23825, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.007633, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018046, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.014111, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.049623, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.156839, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.0164, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.045925, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.544746, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41417300, "relative_activity": 0.849272, "balance": 0.544746, "dry_up": 1.418942, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.036496, "annualized_volatility": 0.209236, "from_high_reference": -0.14577, "from_low_reference": 0.121584 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.798108, "fair_value_reference": 6.948042, "structural_low": 6.200675, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.007576, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.025941, "regime_survival": 0.5625, "best_return": 0.104478, "worst_return": -0.130631, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.105772, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.121168, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.10582, "worst_return": -0.256757, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.126288, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.080386, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.310789, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.05042, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.089431, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.232558, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.123377, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.100719, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": 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"trend": 6.8575, "fair_value": 6.990472, "relative_strength": -18.765441, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.110075, "energy": 16.866934, "activity_lines": [ 6.803333, 6.698182, 6.66277, 6.719124 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.8, "volume": 69325600, "typical_volume": 50554590.0, "trend": 6.837072, "fair_value": 6.975282, "relative_strength": -19.077266, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.165609, "energy": 20.097755, "activity_lines": [ 6.82, 6.730909, 6.678411, 6.715414 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.9, "volume": 83020400, "typical_volume": 50917855.0, "trend": 6.818423, "fair_value": 6.961278, "relative_strength": -16.272452, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 21.17841, "energy": 32.723383, "activity_lines": [ 6.856667, 6.777273, 6.702275, 6.719474 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.85, "volume": 41417300, "typical_volume": 48768015.0, "trend": 6.798108, "fair_value": 6.948042, "relative_strength": -15.683937, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.227707, "energy": 24.143267, "activity_lines": [ 6.853333, 6.805455, 6.720267, 6.721511 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }