{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9602e753-4dac-46da-ae54-ed93e8bd5991", "symbol": "TPIF", "name": "TIMOTHY PLAN TIMOTHY PLAN INTERNATIONAL ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 66.654, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 75.299, "architecture_energy": 59.776, "architecture_maturity": 36.414, "architecture_confidence": 77.134, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.01, "rotation_up": 63.52, "upward_expansion": 84.42, "deceleration": 47.56, "rotation_down": 15.44, "downward_expansion": 11.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 38.04, 37.738462, 37.514641, 37.225064 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 38.92, "trend_reference": 36.884871, "distance_from_trend": 0.055175, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.10023, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.337446, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -1.587986, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.058599, "excess_performance": -0.067026, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055175, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.034946, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.337446, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019472, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.01588, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016979, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.058599, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.068504, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 139860, "relative_activity": 0.843628, "balance": 1.068504, "dry_up": 0.854451, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024813, "annualized_volatility": 0.165417, "from_high_reference": -0.002307, "from_low_reference": 0.230615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.884871, "fair_value_reference": 29.10023, "structural_low": 34.153972, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 35, "median_return": 0.006051, "positive_rate": 0.657143, "directional_follow_through": 0.657143, "median_excess_return": -0.003415, "regime_survival": 0.771429, "best_return": 0.05007, "worst_return": -0.055888, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.021833, "positive_rate": 0.769231, "directional_follow_through": 0.769231, "median_excess_return": -0.037397, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.126545, "worst_return": -0.106368, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.048839, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.067872, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.165582, "worst_return": -0.043334, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -1.756228, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.737302, "energy": 25.254023, "activity_lines": [ 37.401675, 37.342546, 37.173992, 36.950156 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 37.4, "volume": 119287, "typical_volume": 170471.25, "trend": 36.641965, "fair_value": 28.905573, "relative_strength": -1.038265, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.987188, "energy": 27.04757, "activity_lines": [ 37.402248, 37.363294, 37.233439, 37.005488 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 37.88, "volume": 131356, "typical_volume": 170170.5, "trend": 36.75462, "fair_value": 28.999299, "relative_strength": -0.867287, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.845569, "energy": 35.447049, "activity_lines": [ 37.579836, 37.460435, 37.330922, 37.085362 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 38.92, "volume": 139860, "typical_volume": 165784.0, "trend": 36.884871, "fair_value": 29.10023, "relative_strength": -1.587986, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.299057, "energy": 59.77583, "activity_lines": [ 38.04, 37.738462, 37.514641, 37.225064 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }