{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "9605ceb4-df38-466e-99ae-6379eec2c64c",
    "symbol": "MATW",
    "name": "Matthews International Corporation",
    "exchange": "NASDAQ",
    "country": "US",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "QQQ",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "balance",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Balance",
    "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
    "architecture_gate": "mixed",
    "architecture_direction": -23.586,
    "architecture_energy": 14.519,
    "architecture_maturity": 28.082,
    "architecture_confidence": 77.898,
    "architecture_tenure": "Developing",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 63.16,
        "rotation_up": 29.15,
        "upward_expansion": 30.5,
        "deceleration": 50.41,
        "rotation_down": 38.48,
        "downward_expansion": 25.84
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        26.276667,
        26.563091,
        26.698517,
        26.533299
      ],
      "activity_state": "Compressed",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 23.7,
    "trend_reference": 26.363386,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.101026,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 25.882594,
    "distance_from_fair_value": -0.084327,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -18.42108,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": -0.110938,
    "excess_performance": -0.298392,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.101026,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.020314,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.084327,
        "read": "Below anchor"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.121841,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.184211,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.139283,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.110938,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.787566,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 3529492,
      "relative_activity": 2.592977,
      "balance": 0.787566,
      "dry_up": 1.282628,
      "accumulation_observations": 2,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.084857,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.312127,
      "from_high_reference": -0.226718,
      "from_low_reference": 0.111542
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 26.363386,
      "fair_value_reference": 25.882594,
      "structural_low": 22.71,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 14,
        "median_return": -0.004977,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.030836,
        "regime_survival": 0.714286,
        "best_return": 0.124286,
        "worst_return": -0.123591,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": -0.017519,
        "positive_rate": 0.4,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.4,
        "median_excess_return": -0.048283,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.194163,
        "worst_return": -0.176785,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": -0.05509,
        "positive_rate": 0.333333,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.061136,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.213543,
        "worst_return": -0.091943,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.144239,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.081153,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.05798,
        "worst_return": -0.346458,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2024-11-22",
        "end": "2024-12-13",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.010622,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-20",
        "end": "2025-02-07",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.036479,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-02-14",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.031481,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.165854,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-06-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.263583,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-07-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.001179,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2025-08-15",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.038653,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-08-22",
        "end": "2025-08-29",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.015625,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-09-05",
        "end": "2025-10-10",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.099598,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-12-12",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.157937,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
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        "end": "2026-02-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.013081,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2026-04-24",
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        "return": 0.067096,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "return": -0.063834,
        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "return": -0.065089,
        "active": true
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    ],
    "chart_path": [
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        "date": "2023-08-18",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-04-17",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "date": "2026-05-15",
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-22",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "stage": 3,
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      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "relative_strength": -8.80291,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "relative_strength": -7.628511,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
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        "typical_volume": 1209283.25,
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        "fair_value": 26.245342,
        "relative_strength": -9.051432,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 27.46,
        "volume": 1105590,
        "typical_volume": 1227697.75,
        "trend": 26.386865,
        "fair_value": 26.151311,
        "relative_strength": -2.095146,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 50.48385,
        "energy": 27.375679,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.991333,
          26.765818,
          26.746353,
          26.545282
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 27.69,
        "volume": 1131742,
        "typical_volume": 1251954.95,
        "trend": 26.431102,
        "fair_value": 26.064977,
        "relative_strength": 0.400624,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 51.768906,
        "energy": 34.502065,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.26,
          26.956727,
          26.867946,
          26.629355
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 27.75,
        "volume": 1216692,
        "typical_volume": 1247573.75,
        "trend": 26.507766,
        "fair_value": 25.980112,
        "relative_strength": 0.058348,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.736885,
        "energy": 41.935079,
        "activity_lines": [
          27.46,
          27.137091,
          26.984428,
          26.714445
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 23.7,
        "volume": 3529492,
        "typical_volume": 1361173.7,
        "trend": 26.363386,
        "fair_value": 25.882594,
        "relative_strength": -18.42108,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": -23.585968,
        "energy": 14.51908,
        "activity_lines": [
          26.276667,
          26.563091,
          26.698517,
          26.533299
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}