{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96060088-741c-46b6-8fdf-a73217a7d771", "symbol": "BGN", "name": "Banca Generali S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.282, "architecture_energy": 66.657, "architecture_maturity": 74.82, "architecture_confidence": 89.694, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.24, "rotation_up": 60.14, "upward_expansion": 87.67, "deceleration": 64.99, "rotation_down": 27.47, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 65.603334, 65.100001, 61.647035, 59.021447 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 66.75, "trend_reference": 56.343111, "distance_from_trend": 0.184706, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.251561, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.579823, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.84731, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.214825, "excess_performance": 0.043933, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.184706, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071561, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.579823, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.181212, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.078473, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104109, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.214825, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.20462, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1021383, "relative_activity": 1.251373, "balance": 1.20462, "dry_up": 1.172819, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.040311, "annualized_volatility": 0.263145, "from_high_reference": -0.014032, "from_low_reference": 0.531771 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 56.343111, "fair_value_reference": 42.251561, "structural_low": 46.644918, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.005125, "positive_rate": 0.575, "directional_follow_through": 0.575, "median_excess_return": -0.000401, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.172323, "worst_return": -0.156928, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.047422, "positive_rate": 0.642857, "directional_follow_through": 0.642857, "median_excess_return": -0.012368, "regime_survival": 0.642857, "best_return": 0.15487, "worst_return": -0.10992, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.09975, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.020142, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.256224, "worst_return": -0.245735, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 63.900002, "volume": 925509, "typical_volume": 884039.95, "trend": 55.275142, "fair_value": 41.533458, "relative_strength": 7.440698, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.063459, "energy": 87.196805, "activity_lines": [ 64.923335, 62.86091, 59.06041, 57.051279 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 65.25, "volume": 618822, "typical_volume": 833477.4, "trend": 55.615436, "fair_value": 41.763223, "relative_strength": 9.618829, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.043736, "energy": 73.604984, "activity_lines": [ 64.970001, 63.703637, 59.948119, 57.694818 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 65.400002, "volume": 1263353, "typical_volume": 838468.3, "trend": 55.971812, "fair_value": 42.000937, "relative_strength": 8.903378, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.999171, "energy": 64.486691, "activity_lines": [ 65.083335, 64.371819, 60.77392, 58.32608 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 66.75, "volume": 1021383, "typical_volume": 816210.05, "trend": 56.343111, "fair_value": 42.251561, "relative_strength": 7.84731, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.281675, "energy": 66.657288, "activity_lines": [ 65.603334, 65.100001, 61.647035, 59.021447 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }