{ "ticker": { "uuid": "961b6f39-89cf-4d96-87ce-dae0873509c1", "symbol": "300314", "name": "Ningbo David Medical Device Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.255, "architecture_energy": 39.006, "architecture_maturity": 99.964, "architecture_confidence": 88.471, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.9, "rotation_up": 27.3, "upward_expansion": 18.24, "deceleration": 46.93, "rotation_down": 37.07, "downward_expansion": 65.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.746, 9.661818, 10.097977, 10.801635 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 10.16, "trend_reference": 11.771011, "distance_from_trend": -0.136863, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.327034, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.175795, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.506529, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.269891, "excess_performance": -0.277291, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.136863, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.088025, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.175795, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.064739, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.225065, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.269891, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.560529, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16025031, "relative_activity": 1.131724, "balance": 0.560529, "dry_up": 1.282874, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079043, "annualized_volatility": 0.313734, "from_high_reference": -0.412137, "from_low_reference": 0.125138 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 11.771011, "fair_value_reference": 12.327034, "structural_low": 9.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 30, "median_return": 0.001824, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.02382, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.368224, "worst_return": -0.262937, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.035029, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.7, "median_excess_return": 0.020016, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.339286, "worst_return": -0.228854, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.17608, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.016837, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.507421, "worst_return": -0.284661, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.036767, "energy": 60.118702, "activity_lines": [ 9.582, 9.724, 10.485675, 11.239975 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.12, "volume": 18764552, "typical_volume": 14124086.8, "trend": 11.945988, "fair_value": 12.425377, "relative_strength": -29.289245, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.555357, "energy": 62.833497, "activity_lines": [ 9.44, 9.569091, 10.279926, 11.049689 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.79, "volume": 16446500, "typical_volume": 14134226.85, "trend": 11.848856, "fair_value": 12.375206, "relative_strength": -22.221177, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.499343, "energy": 52.452822, "activity_lines": [ 9.556667, 9.571636, 10.162053, 10.910593 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.16, "volume": 16025031, "typical_volume": 14159835.9, "trend": 11.771011, "fair_value": 12.327034, "relative_strength": -22.506529, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.25511, "energy": 39.005601, "activity_lines": [ 9.746, 9.661818, 10.097977, 10.801635 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }