{ "ticker": { "uuid": "96263068-d5d0-40e5-86bf-fc6b0013ab51", "symbol": "ICL", "name": "Iceni Gold Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -71.159, "architecture_energy": 56.117, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 85.812, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.84, "rotation_up": 24.02, "upward_expansion": 7.64, "deceleration": 60.96, "rotation_down": 55.84, "downward_expansion": 78.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.022867, 0.024036, 0.024533, 0.028256 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.021, "trend_reference": 0.035467, "distance_from_trend": -0.407895, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.055728, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.623167, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -57.563188, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.618182, "excess_performance": -0.681887, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.407895, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.269231, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.623167, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.012579, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.575632, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007476, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.618182, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.698625, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 622433, "relative_activity": 0.521531, "balance": 0.698625, "dry_up": 0.785495, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.18315, "annualized_volatility": 0.870813, "from_high_reference": -0.72, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.035467, "fair_value_reference": 0.055728, "structural_low": 0.021, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.053676, "positive_rate": 0.55, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": 0.066102, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 1.444444, "worst_return": -0.405797, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.531915, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.50785, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 1.162162, "worst_return": -0.56, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.048387, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.107006, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.404255, "worst_return": -0.215686, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"relative_strength": -57.439478, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.305275, "energy": 57.56133, "activity_lines": [ 0.025, 0.0246, 0.025995, 0.031209 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.028, "volume": 1783255, "typical_volume": 1187065.25, "trend": 0.038733, "fair_value": 0.056837, "relative_strength": -42.218518, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -41.564426, "energy": 33.535035, "activity_lines": [ 0.025867, 0.025309, 0.025848, 0.030439 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.021, "volume": 1054731, "typical_volume": 1225649.95, "trend": 0.0371, "fair_value": 0.056266, "relative_strength": -56.998954, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.915519, "energy": 52.767984, "activity_lines": [ 0.024267, 0.024655, 0.025129, 0.029295 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.021, "volume": 622433, "typical_volume": 1193472.4, "trend": 0.035467, "fair_value": 0.055728, "relative_strength": -57.563188, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.159268, "energy": 56.117282, "activity_lines": [ 0.022867, 0.024036, 0.024533, 0.028256 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }