{ "ticker": { "uuid": "962df602-5eb1-49b5-9db7-b8ba34fe905b", "symbol": "601579", "name": "Kuaijishan Shaoxing Rice Wine Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.834, "architecture_energy": 43.398, "architecture_maturity": 95.447, "architecture_confidence": 89.597, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.24, "rotation_up": 26.26, "upward_expansion": 6.32, "deceleration": 60.76, "rotation_down": 48.34, "downward_expansion": 79.66 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.739333, 14.747455, 15.535984, 16.212958 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 15.05, "trend_reference": 17.345529, "distance_from_trend": -0.132341, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.144522, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.064016, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -20.950834, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.306452, "excess_performance": -0.263248, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.132341, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.110251, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.064016, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.206641, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.209508, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.0053, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.306452, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.188936, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 39284787, "relative_activity": 1.226179, "balance": 0.188936, "dry_up": 1.112963, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.084458, "annualized_volatility": 0.306979, "from_high_reference": -0.452528, "from_low_reference": 0.088214 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.345529, "fair_value_reference": 14.144522, "structural_low": 13.83, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.002502, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.55, "median_excess_return": 0.012874, "regime_survival": 0.7, "best_return": 0.548913, "worst_return": -0.155167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.024794, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.00581, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.302222, "worst_return": -0.107284, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.053977, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.020655, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.201102, "worst_return": -0.055967, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"relative_strength": -25.055011, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.886502, "energy": 62.224126, "activity_lines": [ 14.367333, 14.780122, 15.77804, 16.54122 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 15.09, "volume": 48285204, "typical_volume": 31566645.0, "trend": 17.519529, "fair_value": 14.124489, "relative_strength": -18.944117, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.660424, "energy": 50.551404, "activity_lines": [ 14.590667, 14.751683, 15.653917, 16.372283 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 15.05, "volume": 39284787, "typical_volume": 32038378.45, "trend": 17.345529, "fair_value": 14.144522, "relative_strength": -20.950834, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.834164, "energy": 43.398331, "activity_lines": [ 14.739333, 14.747455, 15.535984, 16.212958 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }