{ "ticker": { "uuid": "9632d49e-64b7-420b-980a-aa3cf7eab852", "symbol": "1445", "name": "Universal Textile Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.451, "architecture_energy": 68.332, "architecture_maturity": 51.355, "architecture_confidence": 84.271, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.56, "rotation_up": 13.61, "upward_expansion": 14.09, "deceleration": 38.66, "rotation_down": 73.3, "downward_expansion": 92.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.603333, 10.918182, 11.29119, 11.68674 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 10.2, "trend_reference": 12.243968, "distance_from_trend": -0.166937, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.3863, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.337073, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -44.883294, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.318627, "excess_performance": -0.759999, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.166937, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052193, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.337073, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059923, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.448833, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006422, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.318627, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.216652, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 525048, "relative_activity": 1.068503, "balance": 1.216652, "dry_up": 0.811864, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090121, "annualized_volatility": 0.369066, "from_high_reference": -0.363643, "from_low_reference": 0.02 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.243968, "fair_value_reference": 15.3863, "structural_low": 10.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.006024, "positive_rate": 0.478261, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.022313, "regime_survival": 0.73913, "best_return": 0.243902, "worst_return": -0.134921, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.046595, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.006499, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.343251, "worst_return": -0.103586, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.027388, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.12677, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.394749, "worst_return": -0.318627, "sufficient": true }, { 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"active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122396, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.002924, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009174, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.019481, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.045603, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", 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11.321818, 11.666935, 12.035021 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.9, "volume": 188168, "typical_volume": 481840.8, "trend": 12.367313, "fair_value": 15.459245, "relative_strength": -39.369611, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.479794, "energy": 40.402362, "activity_lines": [ 11.123333, 11.230909, 11.565267, 11.936468 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.6, "volume": 386096, "typical_volume": 480089.4, "trend": 12.303482, "fair_value": 15.425258, "relative_strength": -41.609628, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.938091, "energy": 55.881398, "activity_lines": [ 10.863333, 11.101818, 11.442717, 11.822448 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 10.2, "volume": 525048, "typical_volume": 491386.75, "trend": 12.243968, "fair_value": 15.3863, "relative_strength": -44.883294, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.450674, "energy": 68.332021, "activity_lines": [ 10.603333, 10.918182, 11.29119, 11.68674 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }